San Marino’s Unlikely Path to World Cup Qualification
In an unexpected twist, San Marino, the lowest-ranked national soccer team, is clinging to a slim possibility of qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently placed 210th out of 210 nations in the FIFA rankings, the team faces daunting odds.
San Marino, a small enclave with a population slightly over 34,000, is situated within Italy and is regarded as one of the world’s smallest sovereign states. Despite their size, they have struggled in the World Cup qualifying matches, losing all seven contests thus far and scoring only a single goal while conceding 32.
However, there remains a faint glimmer of hope for San Marino to participate in the event next summer in North America. This would require several key developments, potentially including a substantial loss in their impending match.
A Complicated Scenario
European nations are allocated 16 spots in the expanded 2026 World Cup. Following a round-robin qualifying format culminating on November 18, group winners secure automatic berths, while the second-place teams enter a playoff system for the remaining slots.
Adding complexity, four playoff positions are reserved for the highest-ranked teams from the 2024 UEFA Nations League that finished as group winners. Remarkably, San Marino managed to secure victories over Liechtenstein and a draw against Gibraltar, winning their Nations League group in the 2024-25 season.
Ranked 14th among the Nations League group winners, San Marino requires 10 of the 13 higher-ranked teams to qualify directly for the World Cup or secure playoff spots, thus opening a window for them to claim a playoff position.
As the final qualifying week approaches, eight teams have already qualified for the World Cup, reducing San Marino’s needed outcomes to just two additional teams finishing in second place in their respective groups. The paths of Northern Ireland and Romania in their World Cup qualifiers could significantly impact San Marino’s chances on November 18.
If Northern Ireland bests Slovakia and Romania defeats Bosnia and Herzegovina, a scenario would emerge where San Marino would need to intentionally lose to Romania by a considerable margin to allow Romania to advance and relinquish their playoff opportunity.
This predicament echoes past controversies in soccer, notably the infamous “Disgrace of Gijón” during the 1982 World Cup, leading FIFA to enforce rules ensuring concurrent match endings to prevent collusion.
Betting Perspectives
The potential scenario has raised questions regarding betting odds. Given San Marino’s prolonged struggles, bookmakers typically view them as heavy underdogs. According to BetMGM, the highest odds for San Marino to win were +1300 against Cyprus, while odds were as extreme as 100-1 in their loss to Austria.
Despite the unfavorable odds, some bettors are drawn to the story of an underdog. However, if San Marino finds themselves in a position where they must lose intentionally, it could change how sportsbooks handle the match against Romania.
For this scenario to occur, Northern Ireland must defeat Slovakia, and Romania must edge out Bosnia and Herzegovina, creating an unusual situation where bettors are on alert.
As bookmakers navigate through such unprecedented circumstances, they await the outcomes of those key matches before determining the lines for the potentially momentous Romania-San Marino fixture.
While FIFA regulations prohibit teams from deliberately losing matches, the improbability of San Marino’s qualification means their predicament may not attract significant scrutiny should they experience another heavy defeat.
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