A closer look at Carlos Vela’s potential LAFC exit

The pending expiration of Carlos Vela’s contract may have been the elephant in the room during the latter half of LAFC’s 2023 season, but that didn’t mean reporters were reticent to address it.

Vela has been asked countless times over the past few months about his decision or the occurrence of contract negotiations. Repeatedly, he gave a similar answer; he would like to stay in Los Angeles, but it isn’t solely his choice. He’ll play at least one more year of professional soccer, Vela guaranteed, but where that would be, he remained unsure.

After playing seven seasons for Real Sociedad in La Liga, Vela signed with LAFC as the club’s first player, taking on the enormous challenge of leading a brand-new football club on the pitch. He made no secret of his ambition to lead his new team to glory, and he’s certainly walked the walk.

In 2019, Vela produced the greatest MLS season ever with the most goals scored (34) and goal contributions (49 total) in a single season. This productivity helped LAFC capture their first major trophy in the 2019 Supporters’ Shield – a feat they accomplished for a second time in 2022 (en route to an MLS Cup title as well that year).

That might’ve been a nice end to the Vela story, but halfway through last season, LAFC extended Vela as a Designated Player for through 2023. Of course, the Black and Gold made a second consecutive MLS Cup this season, giving Vela a second chance to ride off into the sunset, but LAFC lost in Columbus – a defeat that could now prove to be Vela’s final match for the club.

According to Vela, contract negotiations with the club had not begun prior to MLS Cup. However, three days later, the club was required to release their roster decisions ahead of 2024, in which they indicated that the club had begun negotiations with Vela for a new contract.

How much would re-signing Vela cost LAFC?

As with any contract negotiation, Vela’s will be focused on money.

The Mexican international previously stated, “My part is there but if the other part maybe doesn’t work or doesn’t work in the way I want, we will be not there,” adding, “Of course, I love LA. I want to stay in LA.” He may want it, but reading between the lines tells you he only wants it at his price. This desire is “his part” while he may see finding adequate funds as the club’s part.

The club, on the other hand, might argue that the greater Vela’s desire, the fewer funds it will be required to dedicate. While it is always possible Vela shocks us all by accepting a TAM contract, the safest interpretation of his quote should be his desire to return on the condition that LAFC offer him a DP contract.

From 2018-21, Vela earned a guaranteed compensation of about $6.3 million per year – the highest in the league in 2021. Last year, however, Vela took a massive pay cut to $2,737,500 in guaranteed compensation which ticked back up to $4,383,900 in 2023. This suggests his willingness to take a pay cut has limits – the most obvious of which is a DP contract. The maximum salary for a non-DP player is under $1.7m.

How much is Vela worth?

Vela had the fourth-highest MLS salary in 2019, but was worth every penny of his $6.3 million with 49 regular-season goal contributions.

Broken down, LAFC paid about $128,500 per MLS goal contribution in that legendary season. 2020 saw COVID-19 hamper an already injury-ridden season for Vela, who did not travel to the MLS is Back tournament. Similarly, in 2021 Vela fought through injuries which saw a downturn in form.

Vela’s salary dropped in 2022, but his fitness and goal contributions picked back up. He was mathematically producing more bang for LAFC’s buck at about $119,000 per MLS goal contribution.

With his raise in 2023, his cost-per-goal-contribution has become the most expensive since his first year at LAFC, earning about $209,000 per MLS contribution. According to these numbers, a $2.5 million DP salary should be about what LAFC needs to be willing to spend assuming Vela produces similar numbers in 2024, at least that’s what his contract history tells us. 

The comparison to Chicho Arango

Following LAFC’s 2022 MLS Cup victory, the club decided a DP contract was too much to offer their star striker, Chicho Arango, who produced 16 goals and five assists that regular season.

Arango provided 21 goal contributions in 2022 but was sold to Pachuca due to the club’s refusal to give him a raise, much less a DP slot. Most fans thought he deserved one, as did Real Salt Lake who gave him a DP contract after purchasing him from Pachuca in 2023.

This year, Vela provided the same 21 goal contributions from the No. 9 position, yet the majority of fans don’t think he’s worth a DP slot in 2024. Of course, we’ll wait to see what the club believes.

So what’s the difference between Vela and Arango? There are a few.

Vela already occupied a DP slot; therefore, the club has one open for him. Additionally, he provides invaluable leadership in the locker room that can’t be accurately monetized. The other side of the coin? His age. Arango was 27 when LAFC sold him to Pachuca. Vela is 34.

Declining with age?

Of course, aging makes injuries and fitness a concern when considering a player for a new contract, but his decline in form is even more telling.

One-third of Vela’s goals this year have been from the penalty spot, meaning he only scored six non-penalty MLS goals in 2023. Part of that stems from a change in position from his customary right-wing to a false-No. 9 role. The other seems to be age. Half of Vela’s non-penalty league goals came during a patch of three-consecutive MLS matches in July and August. Since then, Vela failed to score in the club’s 15 remaining league games, including the playoffs and Campeones Cup.

Vela has typically been known to produce in a contract year, as he did so to begin 2022 with an opening-day hat-trick. Vela led LAFC to victory on opening day of 2023, registering one goal and one assist. However, in the second half of the season, the captain seemingly disappeared from the scoresheet. 

In the MLS Cup Playoffs, his final chance to prove his worth in the biggest moment, Vela recorded zero goals and only one assist across five matches. Not only has his form seen a recent decline, but the “big game player” argument has become futile as well.

In his 12 all-time playoff games for LAFC, he’s scored just two goals.

Will Vela return in 2024?

Ultimately, the Vela decision may become a rather simple two-part test for LAFC Co-President and General Manager John Thorrington (assuming Vela is asking for a DP contract).

If Thorrington believes Vela can stay healthy and reproduce similar numbers to either of the past two seasons, he’s potentially worth re-signing. If Thorrington believes the injury risk is too high though, then he isn’t worth re-signing.

Should Vela pass that first test, the next question is: What are LAFC’s replacement options? This is something only Thorrington truly knows.

Signing another diamond in the rough like Golden Boot winner Dénis Bouanga would be ideal, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Conversely, seeing Vela score goals for another club would lead to fanbase FOMO but paying Vela for underwhelming production should be the club’s biggest fear.

If Carlos Vela’s time at LAFC is truly over, another project should begin immediately, which is the building of his statue in front of BMO Stadium.