Alex de Minaur vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas is matchup that is without question worthy of being the Abierto Mexicano Telcel title match, but instead they will be squaring off in the quarterfinals on Thursday night.
With a handful of top-10 players in a strong ATP 500 field, the 12th-ranked Tsitsipas was reduced to the No. 5 seed and he landed in De Minaur’s section, putting them on a collision course for their 11th career meeting on the main tour. Unbelievably, this is without question one of the most lopsided rivalries in the sport–with Tsitsipas sweeping the head-to-head series 10-0. Their most recent encounter also came in Mexico, where the Greek triumphed 6-3, 6-4 in last summer’s Los Cabos final.
If De Minaur is ever going to turn the tide, the time may be now. The 25-year-old Australian is playing the best tennis of his life and is up to a career-high of No. 9 in the world. He is 12-4 this season and two of his losses have come at the hands of top-five opponents (Andrey Rublev in five sets at the Aussie Open and Jannik Sinner in the Rotterdam final). De Minaur has advanced in Acapulco with straight-set routs of Taro Daniel and Sebastian Ofner.
Tsitsipas, on the other hand, has gone in the other direction since the midway point of last year. He was 12-11 in his last 23 matches of the 2024 campaign and losses this season have come to Taylor Fritz in round four at Melbourne Park and to Casper Ruud in last week’s Los Cabos semis. On the bright side for Tsitsipas, he loves playing in Meixco and is now 9-2 lifetime in Acapulco following wins this week over Roman Safiullin and Flavio Cabolli.
Conditions in Acapulco are great for Tsitsipas, but they also aren’t bad for De Minaur. Obviously the matchup favors Tsitsipas; there’s no way around it. At the same time, it shouldn’t be as nightmarish for De Minaur as the one with Jannik Sinner (which the Italian leads it 7-0). Tsitsipas hits a big ball, but he isn’t overpowering like Sinner.
In relatively slow conditions, this peak version of De Minaur should be able to get enough balls back in play to break down Tsitsipas’ backhand and finally get over the hump.
Pick: De Minaur in 3
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