Alex de Minaur and Casper Ruud will be squaring off for just the third time overall and for the first time in a main ATP Tour event when they battle for the Abierto Mexicano Telcel title on Saturday night.
They have split their two previous encounters; Ruud rolled 6-3, 6-2 on the clay courts of the Braga Challenger in 2018 before De Minaur got the job done 4-1, 4-0, 4-2 on the indoor hard courts of the NextGen ATP Finals on year later.
The stakes are now much higher between two players who have established themselves in the top 10 of the sport. De Minaur is currently No. 9 in the world but has to win on Saturday to stay in the top 10 since he is the defending Acapulco champion. The red-hot Australian is once again up to his usual tricks in Mexico with victories this week over Taro Daniel, Sebastian Ofner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Jack Draper. De Minaur is now 10-2 lifetime in Acapulco and it’s also worth nothing that he reached the Los Cabos final last summer. He just loves Mexico.
Right now, in fact, De Minaur loves any tennis court. He is 14-4 this season after compiling a 46-26 record in 2023.
Ruud struggled last season on the heels of a breakthrough 2022 campaign, but he appears to be back in fine form. The 11th-ranked Norwegian will be back in the top 10 regardless of Saturday’s result and he is 13-2 this year following Acapulco victories over Chris Eubanks, Dusan Lajovic, Ben Shelton, and Holger Rune.
The issue for Ruud is that he may be playing too well. The 25-year-old also went deep last week in Los Cabos, losing the singles final and a doubles semifinal to Jordan Thompson on the same day. Ruud has endured a tougher road than De Minaur in Acapulco, too, requiring third sets against Eubanks, Shelton, and Ruud.
This should be a competitive contest between two confident players, but most of the advantages seem to be in De Minaur’s favor.
Pick: De Minaur in 3
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