The amateur draft is this weekend and I’ve done a top-to-bottom refresh and expansion of my draft prospect rankings, which you can see on The Board. Please go read those blurbs and explore the tool grade section of The Board to get a better idea of my thoughts on the players. The goal of the draft rankings is to evaluate and rank as many of the players who are talented enough to hop onto the main section of the pro prospect lists as possible, so they can be ported over to the pro side of The Board as soon as they’re drafted. Players for whom that is true tend to start to peter out in rounds four and five of the draft as bonus slot amounts dip below $500,000. Over-slot guys are obvious exceptions. By the seventh round, we’re mostly talking about org guys who are drafted to make a team’s bonus pool puzzle fit together, or players who need significant development to truly be considered prospects. That usually means ranking about 125 players, but this year’s class is a little bit down and right now I have 100 guys on there.
Scouts and executives tend to think this is a weaker draft class. The high school hitters in this year’s crop are especially thin, while the depth in the class is in high school pitching, usually a demographic teams don’t love drafting with high picks and bonuses. There are still going to be plenty of good players in this draft, but it’s not the best year to be either a team picking at the very top (because there isn’t a generational talent or two) or a team with a lot of picks (there are fewer exciting places to put all that extra bonus money).
For example, last year’s deeper draft class had just over 60 players who I had as 40 FV or better prospects. This year, that number is just over 40. That’s almost a whole round’s worth of impact players present in one draft but not the other.
As I’ve had conversations with scouts, agents, and executives while compiling this list and working on a mock draft (team draft meetings began early this week and actual dope is starting to flow), folks tend to think they have a handle on the players who will come off the board in the first 12 or so picks (though not in an exact order) because there’s a talent drop-off around that area. After that, teams are more likely to start getting creative and cut under-slot deals. But, again, it’s not an awesome draft and you might not like who’s left to pay over-slot money to later on.
As is the case in every draft, safer college players tend to rise late in the process. This year the names to whom that applies include Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt (his data and physical tools are both pretty loud) and Oklahoma State outfielder Carson Benge (a two-way guy with a great-looking swing). Once some of those up-the-middle college performers are off the board in the middle of the first round (Tennessee second baseman Christian Moore and Florida State outfielder James Tibbs are two others), there is going to be a vacuum behind them. This is probably where we’ll see several of the tier-two high school pitchers start to come off the board; something like eight of them could be drafted between picks 20 and 40 or so. These are usually the players teams are targeting with an early second round pick.
Let’s highlight some individual players who I am personally a little higher or lower on than the general industry sentiment. I am higher on Texas high school shortstop Theo Gillen, who I think is one of only a couple players in this class who can be a complete hitter and also stay on the middle of the diamond, though Gillen’s lack of arm means for him that will probably be at second base or in center field. I’m higher on Iowa pitcher Brody Brecht because he has two plus-plus pitches (including an 80-grade offering) and I think the stuff he’s bad at (throwing strikes, fastball movement) can be improved with contemporary dev techniques. Plus, he’s a freaky athlete who’s only been focusing on baseball for about a year.
I’m a little lower on Georgia 3B/OF Charlie Condon, who I think presents some hit tool risk. His underlying data doesn’t indicate a crack in his profile — it’s purely a visual evaluation of his contact ability and swing that would give me pause if I were picking first. Especially if you think Condon is a first baseman, his bat has very little margin for error and you might end up underwhelmed like the Tigers and White Sox have been with Spencer Torkelson and Andrew Vaughn. If you’re going to take Condon first, you’d better be sure that he can play center field or be a great third base glove. I’m also lower on guys who I worry won’t hit (Vance Honeycutt, Jac Caglianone).
I’ll continue working on my first mock today, with the aim to publish either later this afternoon or early tomorrow. Several of my sources want to/have time to speak today and have been in the room with their org for a couple of days now as players are being discussed and gossip spreads.
