The women’s singles event at Wimbledon all comes down to Jasmine Paolini and Barbora Krejcikova–just like everyone had in their brackets, right? This Paolini’s second consecutive Grand Slam final appearance, but the fact that she has made it this far at the All-England Club is far more surprising than her Roland Garros performance. Similarly, Krejcikova is a former French Open champion who had never done much of anything on grass prior to 2024.
Here are my picks for the championship match.
Jasmine Paolini to win (+125)
Paolini has been awesome this season. What’s most impressive is that she has been racking up results on all three surfaces. The world No. 7 was runner-up on the red clay of Roland Garros last month, is now into another major final–this time on grass–and won the biggest title of her career at the WTA 1000 in Dubai (hard courts) in February. Her current fortnight includes straight-set defeats of 2019 U.S. Open champion Bianca Andreescu and a previously scorching-hot Emma Navarro (the American had crushed both Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff earlier in Wimbledon). Krejcikova has won just 19 matches in her career on grass compared to 230 on clay. It’s not like the Czech has a huge advantage on this surface.
Over 22.5 games (-110)
A long, competitive contest can be expected. Krejcikova is slight favorite, but as mentioned above there is no reason to think she will win with ease–if it all. Both of these women have been in impressive form this fortnight, but neither one has been anywhere close to dominant. Paolini has survived two marathon matches up to this point (against Madison Keys in the round of 16 and against Donna Vekic in the semifinals) and two others required a tiebreaker. Krejcikova has also been to three sets twice and two other times she prevailed in a second-set tiebreaker. Moreover, amidst the pressure of a major final it’s unlikely that either woman closes out the match in convincing fashion.
Paolini Over 3.5 service breaks (-120)
Paolini leads the women’s tournament with 31 service breaks (Krejcikova is second with 27), averaging 5.17 breaks per match and 2.21 breaks per set. Yes, the 5’4” Italian is breaking serve an average of more than four times even in two-set matches. Krejcikova is dropping her serve just 1.21 times per set so far at these Championships, but that number doesn’t offset Paolini’s returning numbers. And it’s worth noting that the Czech has not yet faced a returner of Paolini’s caliber.
Over 0.5 tiebreakers played (+200)
Everyone loves a tiebreaker–especially in major final. The the intensity, the drama…it’s what a match of this magnitude deserves. Nobody should be surprised if at least one tiebreaker is necessary on Saturday. Paolini has played a tiebreaker in four of her past five rounds. Krejcikova has been pushed to a tiebreaker five times even though just two of her matches have required three sets.
