Analyzing Aaron Judge’s Slow Start to the Season

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Monday afternoon’s game between the A’s and Yankees ended in impressive fashion for Oakland, with closer Mason Miller buzz-sawing through the top of New York’s lineup to close out a 2-0 victory. The 25-year-old righty struck out Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto, and Aaron Judge consecutively on 14 pitches, mixing eight four-seam fastballs — all with velocities above 100 mph — with four nasty sliders. He absolutely overpowered Judge: Those fastballs Judge flailed at were clocked at 100.7 mph, 102.2 mph, and 102.5 mph, the last of which wasn’t quite as fast as the 103.3-mph heater Miller used to strike out Soto.

Still, this isn’t about Soto or Miller, as exciting as both of them are. It’s about Judge, whose 2024 performance has been puzzling, as he’s been striking out a lot lately and is off to the slowest start of his career. On Saturday — Aaron Judge Bobblehead Day at Yankee Stadium — he struck out in all four of his plate appearances against the Rays and heard a smattering of boos. Approaching the situation with Jeterian diplomacy and humor, he told reporters afterwards, “I’ve heard worse. I’d probably be doing the same thing in their situation.”

His struggles have been somewhat camouflaged by Soto’s early success (.319/.432/.538, 187 wRC+ so far) and by the team’s 16-8 start, but the Yankees have little chance of holding onto their slim AL East lead if they can’t get their biggest hitter going. Judge, who will turn 32 on Friday, is batting just .180/.315/.348. He entered Tuesday’s game against the A’s in the midst of a 3-for-28 skid that included just a trio of singles and one walk against 16 strikeouts since April 15. He showed signs of life during Tuesday night’s 4-3 win, hitting a sizzling 95-mph grounder past a diving Tyler Nevin for a double, then coming around to score on a two-run Giancarlo Stanton double. Later he barreled a slider for a 104-mph warning track fly out to right center field: Thanks to his 15.7% walk rate, Judge’s 99 wRC+ is short of a crisis; this isn’t like looking at what’s left of José Abreu.

But it’s decidedly out of character for a player who set an American League record with 62 homers in 2022 while hitting .311/.425/.686 (209 wRC+) en route to MVP honors, then followed it up by hitting .267/.406/.613 (174 wRC+) last year. Unfortunately, in putting together the majors’ highest wRC+ this side of Shohei Ohtani, he was limited to 106 games and fell 44 plate appearances short of qualifying for the batting title because he missed eight weeks after tearing a ligament in his right big toe in a collision with the outfield wall in Dodger Stadium.

But while his stats did take a downturn after the injury — especially in his first few weeks back — that decline does not appear to be of a piece with this year’s slow start:

Aaron Judge, 2023–24

Judge’s strikeout rate is similar to both halves of last season (he was injured on June 3 and didn’t return until July 28), up from 25% the previous two seasons. His BABIP and ISO are drastically below his post-injury stretch, however, and his quality of contact is lower:

Aaron Judge Batted Ball Stats, 2023–24 Season

SOURCE: Baseball Savant