Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love. After taking a look at the qualifying offer decisions that have to be made shortly after the conclusion of the World Series, I figured now would be as good a time as any to run down the team and player option decisions. We’ll start with the National League, with the American League following on Friday. Here’s what’s on the table.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have mutual options with three players: Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, and Scott McGough. Mutual options are virtually never exercised, and none of these will be. Pederson will be able to do better than $14 million on the open market, and Grichuk should probably do better than $6 million. McGough’s season has been disastrous; $4 million isn’t worth it for an up-and-down reliever.
On the club side, the Diamondbacks hold options on Merrill Kelly ($7 million) and Eugenio Suárez ($15 million). Both of those are going to get picked up, with Suárez breaking out in the second half and Kelly pitching solidly in the 10 starts he’s made when healthy. Even if he’s more like a fifth starter now, that’s a bargain price.
While Jordan Montgomery probably wasn’t expecting to exercise his player option when he signed with the Diamondbacks on a one-year deal, he’s definitely going to now. He’s been awful this year, and a deal better than $22.5 million isn’t going to be out there for him.
Atlanta Braves
Right off the top, the Braves have a couple of slam-dunk club options to pick up. Marcell Ozuna will return for $16 million to DH, and Travis d’Arnaud will return for $8 million to rejoin Sean Murphy in Atlanta’s catching tandem. The team also has the easy choice to decline Luke Jackson’s $8 million option.
The last choice here is the toughest one: Is Aaron Bummer worth $7.25 million? I tend to think so, as his 3.25 ERA may actually be an underperformance; his FIP is 1.90. On the other hand, the Braves are not using him as a high-leverage reliever. His average leverage index is 0.71. Still, I lean toward “yes” here, because his performance has been great, no matter the role, and fellow lefty A.J. Minter is hitting free agency.
Chicago Cubs
Drew Smyly’s mutual option will be declined, as mutual options are, but the real decision — and I’m not exaggerating when I say this could be the inflection point for the Cubs’ entire offseason — is what Cody Bellinger decides to do with his player option. Bellinger has taken a step back from his retooled 2023, with a 24-point decline in wRC+ and considerably less value in the field. It’s worth mentioning that his defensive dip is more a testament to the otherworldly glove of center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong than it is a knock on Bellinger, who has played more right field and first base since PCA arrived.
Either way, his overall production has dropped off this season, from 4.4 WAR last year to 2.2 entering this week. You’d think that would make it an obvious decision for Bellinger to stay in Chicago, where he’s set to make $27.5 million next year if he exercises the first of his two player options. Indeed, Bob Nightengale reported on Sunday that Bellinger is “highly expected” to remain with the Cubs.
Then again, Bellinger is represented by the always aggressive Scott Boras, who could convince his client that there’s more money to be made on the open market. Seems unlikely, but it’s certainly possible.
Cincinnati Reds
Nick Martinez has a player option, and no, you’re not having déjà vu. This is the third straight offseason in which the righty’s fate is in his own hands. His prior two decisions to opt out and enter free agency were obvious, and his choice is clear once again. Sure, the $12 million that he would make to stay with the Reds is a nice chunk of change, but he should be able to get more for his career-high 2.8 WAR this season.
That said, there are two realities that could curb his value as a free agent: 1) He remains more of a back-and-forth guy than a full-fledged starter, and 2) he’s now 34 years old. Still, at his age, this might be the last shot he has to strike it relatively big on the open market, so I’d expect him to enter free agency again.
The Brewers love mutual options, and that’s what Jakob Junis had transferred over to Cincinnati when Milwaukee traded him on the day of the deadline. He spent some time on the injured list this year but has been great as a swingman when healthy, so we should expect him to eschew his end of an $8 million mutual option to look for a multi-year deal.
The other $8 million decision is Emilio Pagán’s, and it’ll be a tough one for him. Pagán is normally a workhorse, but a lat strain forced him to miss nearly three months of the season, limiting him to just 35 1/3 innings. They’ve been good innings, but not dominant ones; half of the balls put in play against him have been hard hit, a career worst. I think he could do modestly better on a multi-year deal, but if I were him I’d probably take the $8 million and try again next offseason.
The final two choices belong to Cincinnati, and they’re a couple of easy ones. Catcher Luke Maile and left-handed pitcher Brent Suter have matching $3.5 million options, and I expect them both to stick around at that price. Suter’s been invaluable as a multi-inning relief arm who’s allergic to walks and hard contact, and Maile is a clubhouse favorite as Tyler Stephenson’s backup.
