Key Highlights:
Paolo Banchero’s postseason numbers aren’t as impressive (or sustainable) as they seem. Banchero has a postseason effective field goal percentage of 50.9% after posting a regular season effective field goal percentage of 43.7%. It is important to look at the bigger picture when evaluating players in order to be more honest and fair with our evaluations.
Postseason performance of Paolo Banchero
This postseason marks the first time that 2022-23 Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero has been tested in a playoff setting. On paper, the early returns have been promising. Through five games, Banchero is averaging 24.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 4.4 APG on 56.2% true shooting. However, as you probably guessed from my “on paper” remark, there is a but that comes with these numbers, and that caveat is that Banchero’s postseason debut hasn’t been as successful as it seems.
Process Over Results
Not to turn this into a philosophy class, but in life, the people who focus more on the results than enjoying the overall process are never able to achieve sustained happiness. That’s because you can’t rely on consistently good results. There is too much randomness in life for that to be possible. What you can rely on, though, is a consistently good process. The same is true with basketball. No matter how much you train or prepare, you can never be in full control of the results. So, you need to focus on honing in your process and hope that, at the end of the day, fortune falls in your favor. That’s what’s going on with Banchero. He is getting some good results, but the way he’s going about it (his process) isn’t all that replicable over a larger sample size.
A Problem In The Paint
The beauty of Banchero’s game is that his athleticism and imposing frame allow him to dominate the paint like few athletes in the league. During the regular season, Banchero averaged 9.7 points in the paint per game, which puts him in the 90th percentile among players with at least 30 games played (per NBA.com). The problem is that his employer (the Orlando Magic) has one fatal flaw: poor spacing. On the season, Orlando was 29th in 3-point attempts per game. And in the playoffs, fatal flaws get magnified, and the Magic’s first round opponent, the Cleveland Cavaliers, have exploited their poor spacing by packing the paint. As a result, the Magic has been relegated to tenth in points in the paint per game.
A Small Sample Size
Regardless of the spacing circumstances, shots still need to be attempted, and Banchero is still the team’s de facto number one offensive option. And since Banchero can’t get to the rim, he’s been forced to take more pull-up midrange/3-point jumpers. In the playoffs, his effective field goal percentage is at 50.9%. However, the regular season provides a much more reliable sample, with his eFG% at 43.7%. Paolo Banchero is showing some skill in the postseason, but it might not be sustainable over a larger sample size.
Why This Matters
The bottom line here is that Banchero’s numbers against the Cavaliers aren’t sustainable over a larger sample size. It’s essential to be fair and honest when evaluating players like Banchero and consider the full picture rather than just the current statistics. As a young player in his first playoff series, there are factors at play that may impact Banchero’s performance moving forward.
