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The bat tracking era is here, and with it comes a wave of new ideas and tools to revolutionize baseball analysis. While the essence of the game remains the same – pitchers throwing, hitters swinging, and players running the field – the way we look at hitting is poised for a significant shift. Today, we delve into the high-level summary numbers that offer insights on hitting, while advocating for a deeper dive into more granular analysis.
Average swing speed, swing length, squared-up rate, and blast rate are the key metrics we’ll explore. The notion of swinging harder leading to better outcomes seems intuitive – a point reinforced by the impressive names crowning the swing speed leaderboard: Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, and others. However, a look at the bottom of the list reveals a roster of solid hitters with softer swings, underlining the lack of a direct correlation between swing speed and offensive production, as measured by wRC+.
Beyond swing speed, analyzing swing length unveils a nuanced picture. While longer swings tend to result in more strikeouts, the relationship is not as straightforward as initially assumed. Swing length also correlates heavily with pull rate, highlighting the subtle trade-offs that come with different swing styles.
Turning back to bat speed, a faster swing often translates to greater damage on contact. However, the relationship between swing speed and overall performance is complex, with a myriad of factors at play. A detailed breakdown of correlation coefficients paints a clearer picture of how swing speed, hard swing rate, swing length, squared-up rate, and blast rate influence various offensive outcomes.
While swing speed offers valuable insights, it alone cannot capture the complete essence of a hitter’s production. Similar to raw pitch or exit velocity data, bat speed data may be intriguing but somewhat incomplete. Moving on to squared-up rate and blast rate, these metrics shed light on a hitter’s ability to make solid contact and generate power, respectively.
Squared-up rate, despite its initial appeal, presents challenges in translating to tangible outcomes like line drive rate, reflecting the complexities of offensive production. However, when paired with swing speed, squared-up rate reveals a compelling narrative of how optimal contact paired with aggressive swings can enhance a player’s performance.
In conclusion, while the advent of bat tracking technology has opened new avenues for analysis, the road to understanding hitting dynamics is multifaceted. Through a blend of high-level metrics and granular insights, we can uncover the hidden truths behind the art of hitting in baseball.
