We’re nearly a month through the season and there’s still a jumble of teams sitting around .500 who could wind up in the playoff picture with one hot streak. That’s exactly what happened with the Twins last week. Of course, the opposite is true, too, with the Rays learning that lesson while getting swept by the White Sox. This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coinflip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps. First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — I’ve taken some editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.
Complete Power Rankings
| Rank | Team | Record | Elo | Opponent Elo | Playoff Odds | Power Score | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braves | 19-7 | 1631 | 1489 | 99.4% | 1631 | 0 |
| 2 | Dodgers | 18-12 | 1571 | 1494 | 94.6% | 1570 | 2 |
| 3 | Yankees | 19-10 | 1568 | 1505 | 88.6% | 1568 | -1 |
Tier 1 – The Braves
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Braves 19-7 1631 1489 99.4% 1631
The Braves continue to run roughshod over the rest of baseball, sweeping the Marlins and winning a dramatic weekend series against the Guardians. They’re doing it all despite slow starts from Ronald Acuña Jr. (111 wRC+), Austin Riley (95), and Matt Olson (101). They did just get Ozzie Albies back from his toe injury earlier than expected and Marcell Ozuna continues to power the offense.
Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Dodgers 18-12 1571 1494 94.6% 1570
Yankees 19-10 1568 1505 88.6% 1568
Phillies 19-10 1561 1476 84.2% 1562
Guardians 19-9 1550 1498 50.2% 1552
The four teams in this tier have been playing some excellent baseball recently and are separating themselves from the morass of teams below them. The Guardians still have the best record in the AL despite losing two of three to the Braves, and the Phillies have won 13 of their last 15 games, including a sweep of the Padres over the weekend. The Dodgers had their six-game win streak snapped Sunday, but their sweep of the Nationals and series win over the Blue Jays helped put their early-season struggles behind them. A trio of rookies — Andy Pages in the outfield and Landon Knack and Gavin Stone in the rotation — have helped sure up some of the roster’s question marks. Of course, it’s hard to be worried about Los Angeles when Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani are driving the offense with MVP caliber seasons. The Yankees split a four-game series against the surprisingly tough A’s, but then beat up on the Brewers by scoring 30 runs on Saturday and Sunday. Aaron Judge, who had been slumping to start the season, homered twice this weekend and it looks like all the adjustments that Anthony Volpe has made have helped him take a big step forward this year. New York heads into this week with a huge four-game series against the Orioles on the docket.
Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Orioles 17-10 1543 1488 77.6% 1544
Brewers 17-10 1538 1512 50.4% 1539
Cubs 17-11 1533 1490 60.0% 1533
Mariners 15-13 1526 1488 58.4% 1525
The Orioles had a forgettable weekend, starting with the demotion of Jackson Holliday and ending with a series loss at home to the A’s that included two Craig Kimbrel meltdowns. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ starting rotation carried them to the top of the AL West; their starters have allowed just 20 runs over their last 16 games. The Cubs looked great in their dominant sweep of the Astros before faltering against the Red Sox, getting blown out 17-0 on Saturday and losing a heartbreaker in the ninth on Sunday night. The Brewers didn’t fare much better, splitting a four-game series with the Pirates before getting trounced by the Yankees. Still, these two teams — and the generally good play of the rest of the teams in the division — have made the NL Central one of the more compelling storylines to start the season. Chicago is hanging around despite missing Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, and a handful of pitchers, all suffering from a variety of maladies. Milwaukee has had plenty of injury issues too, and it’s enjoying a surprising breakout from Brice Turang, but its pitching staff is running pretty thin — allowing 30 runs across the last two days is evidence enough of that. These two teams will face off this weekend in a three-games series that could set the tone for how this rivalry will shape up this year.
Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Red Sox 16-13 1518 1508 30.6% 1516
Twins 14-13 1519 1483 59.1% 1516
Mets 14-13 1516 1522 33.2% 1513
Rangers 15-14 1512 1514 44.4% 1510
Tigers 16-12 1509 1482 34.1% 1509
Blue Jays 14-15 1509 1517 37.7% 1505
Royals 17-12 1504 1488 26.8% 1505
Giants 14-15 1506 1499 37.6% 1503
Reds 15-13 1498 1482 25.5% 1496
Cardinals 13-15 1501 1506 35.1% 1496
