There were several exciting matchups last week in baseball, such as Dodgers-Braves, Brewers-Cubs, and Orioles-Yankees, with the winners setting the stage for potentially thrilling playoff races ahead. This season, we have made changes to our power rankings. The previous model did not adequately adapt to teams’ performance fluctuations throughout the season, putting too much emphasis on a team’s overall performance without considering changes since the start of the season. That’s why we have switched to using a modified Elo rating system for our power rankings model. Elo is a system that measures teams’ relative strength and reacts quickly to recent performance trends.
To prevent recent results from carrying too much weight during the season, we adjust each team’s raw Elo rank using our playoff odds (regressed by 50%) and weigh them against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in significance as the season progresses up to a maximum of 25%. This approach allows the rankings to reflect evolving team performance while remaining responsive to hot or cold streaks.
Below are the complete power rankings:
Rank|Team|Record|Elo|Opponent Elo|Playoff Odds|Power Score|Δ
—|—|—|—|—|—|—|—
1|Dodgers|23-13|1597|1503|98.4%|1599|1
2|Braves|20-12|1594|1502|98.4%|1593|-1
3|Phillies|24-11|1579|1475|90.5%|1583|1
4|Orioles|23-11|1576|1496|87.0%|1578|2
5|Yankees|23-13|1571|1511|87.4%|1572|-2
6|Guardians|22-12|1540|1492|49.8%|1543|-1
7|Mariners|19-15|1544|1500|66.2%|1542|2
8|Cubs|21-14|1540|1497|68.1%|1541|0
9|Twins|19-14|1538|1475|69.8%|1536|2
10|Brewers|20-13|1534|1511|58.1%|1536|-3
11|Rangers|19-16|1523|1508|45.6%|1521|2
12|Red Sox|19-16|1518|1510|28.1%|1515|-2
13|Royals|20-15|1505|1492|26.1%|1504|3
14|Padres|18-19|1503|1508|48.1%|1499|7
15|Tigers|18-16|1497|1490|28.3%|1495|-1
16|Rays|17-18|1500|1485|42.1%|1494|6
17|Mets|16-18|1494|1520|27.4%|1490|-5
18|Blue Jays|16-19|1490|1510|24.8%|1484|-3
19|Astros|12-22|1487|1515|40.6%|1477|4
20|Giants|15-20|1482|1507|25.8%|1476|-3
21|Athletics|17-18|1478|1501|2.2%|1475|4
22|Diamondbacks|15-20|1480|1501|28.6%|1474|-2
23|Cardinals|15-19|1477|1493|25.4%|1472|-4
24|Reds|16-18|1472|1489|19.5%|1469|-6
25|Nationals|17-17|1457|1500|1.1%|1456|1
26|Pirates|16-19|1451|1483|10.1%|1448|-2
27|Angels|12-22|1436|1516|2.0%|1429|0
28|Marlins|10-26|1423|1506|0.5%|1415|0
29|White Sox|8-26|1371|1508|0.0%|1365|0
30|Rockies|8-26|1342|1496|0.0%|1338|0
**Tier 1 – The Best of the Best**
1. Dodgers: Los Angeles emerged victorious over the Braves in a weekend series, with Shohei Ohtani excelling on offense with remarkable stats.
2. Braves: Fell to the Dodgers but remain a strong contender in the National League.
**Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness**
1. Phillies: The Phillies have been on a hot streak with impressive victories and strong pitching performances.
2. Orioles: Baltimore has been performing well, especially after a series win against the Yankees and a sweep against the Reds.
3. Yankees: Despite recent losses, the Yankees are still in the playoff race.
**Tier 3 – Solid Contenders**
1. Guardians: Experienced some losses but remain competitive in the AL.
2. Mariners: Pitching has been a highlight for the Mariners as they secure series victories.
3. Cubs: Battling in the NL Central with solid performances.
4. Twins: Broke a winning streak but have shown strong offensive capabilities.
5. Brewers: Facing challenging matchups but maintaining a competitive edge.
6. Rangers: Competing in the AL with promising pitching performances.
