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Ah, the trade deadline. It’s a time to dream about the huge moves your club could make. It could go get a big bopper, the kind of hitter who could put the team on his back down the stretch and carry it to October. Maybe you’re more interested in a CC Sabathia-style workhorse, a starter who could anchor your pitching staff and throw as many innings as you need, regardless of what that number is. Perhaps an electrifying defender is on the table, or a game-breaking speedster who could transform your lineup.
But let’s be realistic: None of that’s going to happen. Instead, your team is going to trade for a reliever. Relievers are the common currency of the trade deadline. Every team needs more of them. I don’t see a single bullpen in baseball that couldn’t benefit from adding an arm or two. Meanwhile, most of the acquisitions fans dream about simply aren’t on the table, because those players don’t exist. Sure, half a season of one of the best hitters in baseball is enticing, but you can’t get that at the trade deadline because no team has one to spare, at least not for a reasonable cost. But relievers? Oh, there will be relievers on offer.
Today’s article is something of a real world shopping guide. Obviously, a huge move would be more fun. Maybe Luis Robert Jr. or Garrett Crochet will get traded. Realistically, though, most of the prizes this deadline will be middle relievers. So let’s take stock of an assortment of the best options who might be on the market, as well as what past years suggest about their probable cost in prospects. A few rules of engagement: I’m looking only at likely sellers, and going team by team. I didn’t use a hard-and-fast rule in terms of playoff chances when constructing my seller’s list, and I’m erring on the expansive side, so if I list your team in the article and you think they’re still in the race, my apologies. I’m using the last few years of trade returns as a guide, and I’m going to stick to naming prospect value tiers rather than individual names. Let’s get started.
Toronto Blue Jays
Chad Green, RHP
Trevor Richards, RHP
Nate Pearson, RHP
This is a tricky one. The Blue Jays have the worst bullpen in baseball in terms of WAR this year, but they also have a lot of interesting relievers. Yimi García and Jordan Romano are both on the IL, and although García may return before the deadline, I’m considering both of them off-limits. However, Toronto still has a few solid options. Green has a long history of effective relief work, but he had Tommy John surgery in 2022 and hasn’t quite looked the same since. He has a 3.08 ERA and 4.24 FIP (4.0 xFIP, 3.55 SIERA) since returning. He’s under contract through 2025, at $10.5 million per year. That makes Green an expensive middle relief option, but the Jays seem likely to pay down some of the money on that deal if they trade him. The question here boils down to whether Green will muddle by as a decent option or regain his killer breaking ball and head back up to closer-level results. I expect teams to split the difference in their offers. That works out to something like a 40+ or 45 FV prospect coming back in exchange. I’d be excited to make that deal if I were trading for Green; I think his post-injury trajectory implies some upside.
Richards has one of the best changeups in baseball and not a ton else. He’ll give you a lot of innings at a competent rate. He’s a free agent after this year, so the Jays are definitely looking to move him. The return for someone of Richards’ caliber has generally been a lottery ticket: a fringe player already on the 40-man roster or a minor leaguer with a loud tool or two but some red flags. I think the Jays may package him with Green to sweeten the deal; two veteran relievers are an attractive option for teams who need quantity as much as quality (Astros, Royals, Mets).
That leaves Pearson, an awkward case. He was once a top prospect, but he’s been in the majors for three-plus years at this point without much success. The stuff is still there; the results have never arrived. Realistically, no team is giving up more than a low-level flier in exchange for him, but that feels light from the Jays’ side based on his former pedigree. I expect that if Pearson gets moved, it will be in a package deal with one of Toronto’s hitters to obscure the exact one-for-one nature of the trade. I think that teams with high confidence in their pitching development will be interested in Pearson; he has three plus pitches and a live arm. It’s just a matter of which teams thinks they can fix him, and what other needs they have.
Detroit Tigers
Andrew Chafin, LHP
Jason Foley, RHP
Will Vest, RHP
Chafin is the archetypical deadline rental. He has closer experience and is pitching well this year. He has a club option for 2025 that looks likely to be picked up but certainly isn’t a no-brainer, so acquiring teams can think of him as a short-term or intermediate piece. He’s a lefty, helpful for heavily unbalanced bullpens. Teams might be weirded out by his brief collapse in 2023, but he righted the ship quickly. There’s nothing particularly fluky in his numbers; he’s a high-strikeout, high-walk guy, which makes sense given his slider-heavy approach. I think the broad appeal of Chafin’s profile will support a 40+/45 FV prospect, a juicy return considering that Chafin got traded for Peter Strzelecki only a year ago. The combination of track record and current performance is just too enticing.
Foley and Vest aren’t locks to get dealt. The Tigers control both for years to come, and they’re trying to compete in 2025; if they don’t get attractive offers, there’s no reason to deal either one. But both players debuted late, which means a lot of their value is concentrated in the present and near future. Foley’s underlying stats don’t thrill me; I bet the Tigers ask for a closer-y return and don’t get one. Vest, on the other hand, looks like the real deal. He gets grounders and doesn’t give out free passes. He has enough intriguing pitches that one will surely pop in any team’s pitch modeling framework. If you want to plug Vest into the middle of your bullpen for years to come, I think the Tigers would be willing to make a move for a Chafin-like return. They could use some depth in their system, and while Vest is great now, the half-life of effective relievers isn’t huge, so I’d expect Detroit to be willing to cash in.
Chicago White Sox
John Brebbia, RHP
Tanner Banks, LHP
The White Sox are open for business, largely in the luxury aisle – Crochet and Robert are exciting trade chips. Brebbia isn’t exciting, but he’s consistently useful. Most teams could use a slider-and-command guy like him in middle relief. I think he’ll fetch a 40+ FV prospect in return, a depth piece with an exciting tool or two. He’d be a priority target of mine assuming that’s the price; I like his odds of performing well over the rest of the season more than some relievers who have garnered more interest according to the current rumor mill.
Banks is a pure depth piece. He’s having a good season so far, largely on the back of home run prevention, but also thanks to a career-best strikeout rate. My guess is that the White Sox are asking for a prospect in the 40+/45 FV range thanks to all the years of control, but they’ll end up settling for less. He’s already 32, isn’t exactly dominant this year, and has a career 3.94 ERA with similar projections going forward. He’s a nice…”
