Australian Open men’s final expert picks: Medvedev vs. Sinner

Expert picks are back for the Australian Open final on Sunday, when a first-time champion at Melbourne Park will be crowned. It’s two-time finalist Daniil Medvedev facing a red-hot Jannik Sinner. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

(4) Jannik Sinner vs. (3) Daniil Medvedev

Ricky: Sinner is a sizable favorite. After all, he was absolutely on fire at the end of last season and has remained as such early in 2024. Whereas Sinner has bulldozed his way through the Aussie draw, Medvedev has played a trio of five-setters–including in both the quarterfinals (vs. Hubert Hurkacz) and semis (won from two sets down against Alexander Zverev). The Italian feels like the most deserving champion, especially after ousting world No. 1 Novak Djokovic on Friday. It’s his time. That being said, I don’t think it’s going to be easy. Although Medvedev lost all three of their encounters this past fall, he was competitive every time and he still leads the overall head-to-head series 6-3. The Russian may run out of gas late, but this should be a great match pretty much the whole way. Sinner in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-2, 6-3.

Cheryl: There will be a new Australian Open champion on Sunday. Whether we also get a brand new slam winner will largely depend on whether Medvedev, who won the U.S. Open in 2021, can recover from his trio of five-set matches over the fortnight and 20 or so hours on the court. The Russian has battled his way back from two sets down against both Emil Ruusuvuori and again on Friday vs. Zverev. Of course, there’s no guarantee that even if Medvedev were fresh as a spring daisy, he would be able to defeat Sinner. The Italian is officially the man to beat on tour right now, with a bona fide win over Djokovic in Melbourne to prove it (when nobody else could do so for the past six years). Sure Djokovic played one of the worst matches of his professional career, but Sinner was clever enough to let him get on with the business of beating himself. And then there’s the Sinner-Medvedev head-to-head, which is a bit complicated. Medvedev holds a 6-3 edge, but the three that Sinner has won are the most recent three. Sinner was my pre-tournament pick to win the title, so I’m sticking with it. Sinner in 4: 6-4, 6-3, 6-7(7), 6-2.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Somehow, Sinner and Medvedev will meet for the sixth time in less than one year–and every time except once in a final  Although the Russian took their initial six meetings, he has not won since Miami last March. Sinner has corrected course, winning the last three. A large credit here needs to go to coach Darren Cahill for mapping out the strategy that has been effective enough to flip this intriguing head-to-head series. That being said, four of the last eight sets between the two have been tiebreakers–with the Italian winning three. Medvedev will be appearing in his sixth major final and third in Australia. This valuable experience will most definitely count for quite a bit when they meet yet again. Ironically, this will be their first meeting at a major.  Sinner played a complete match in eliminating Djokovic in the semifinals, while Medvedev simply stayed the course and eventually made inroads against Zverev beginning in the third set to ultimately win in five. Just as Zverev appeared to peak against Alcaraz in his quarterfinal win, I expect a bit of a letdown from Sinner in the final–mentally as well as with execution on the court. Medvedev may feel like he is playing with house money after being a set away from the exit for the third time in the tournament. Not even a 3:39 am match finish time earlier in the fortnight halted his progress. A combination of several major final appearances from Medvedev as well as a large ask of Sinner to replicate his semifinal form leads to the 2021 U.S. Open champion winning his second major. Medvedev in 5: 7-6(4), 6-7(7), 6-4, 3-6, 7-5.