Andrey Rublev is 0-9 lifetime in Grand Slam quarterfinals. At that stage he has lost to the likes of Novak Djokovic (twice), Rafael Nadal, and Daniil Medvedev (three times).
None of those three guys stand in his way this time around. But it’s someone just about as daunting–if not more–on the other side of the net.
Rublev and Jannik Sinner will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers when they clash in the Australian Open quarterfinals on Tuesday. The head-to-head series stands at 4-2 in favor of Sinner, and the reality is that it isn’t that close. Both of Rublev’s victories have come via retirement, plus Sinner has won four of their last five encounters–including three in straight sets. They faced each other twice in 2023, when the Italian prevailed 6-2, 6-4 in Miami and 7-5, 7-6(5) in Vienna.
Sinner was absolutely on fire when he beat Rublev in Vienna, as his fall swing featured two titles, two upsets of Novak Djokovic, a runner-up performance at the Nitto ATP Finals, and a Davis Cup triumph for Italy. The world No. 4 has remained red hot in Melbourne, with straight-set wins over Botic van de Zandschulp, Jesper de Jong, Sebastian Baez, and Karen Khachanov.
Rublev’s road has been much tougher; he needed five sets in round one against Thiago Seyboth Wild and five on Sunday night against Alex de Minaur. The latter contest lasted four hours and 14 minutes, at the end of which Rublev was clearly feeling some physical effects.
Even without taking Rublev’s slam quarterfinal hopelessness into account, Sinner appears to have just about every edge. It’s not a good matchup for the fifth-ranked Russian, because he doesn’t like playing defense but has to play a lot of it against a more powerful opponent in Sinner. Rublev’s main weakness is the second serve, on which Sinner will most definitely feast.
Rublev may steal a set since he is in stellar form, himself, but Sinner’s streak will likely continue.
Pick: Sinner in 4
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