Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev will be facing each other for the 19th time in their careers when they meet again in the Australian Open semifinals on Friday.
It’s already one of the most familiar matchups in recent tennis history outside of the Big 3, and it’s a head-to-head series that Medvedev leads 11-7. They faced each other a whopping six times last season and the Russian won five–but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Two were three-set thrillers (Indian Wells and Monte-Carlo) and two other Medvedev wins also included tiebreakers. Zverev’s lone victory came at the Cincinnati Masters via a 6-4, 5-7, 6-4 decision in the round of 16.
The German’s 1-5 record in 2023 can be attributed in part to his terrible ankle injury sustained at the 2022 French Open. Zverev’s comeback understandably took a while to pick up steam, but it’s safe to say he is all the way back now. The 26-year-old is up No. 6 in the world and perhaps still on the rise following wins this fortnight over Dominik Koepfer, Lukas Klein, Alex Michelsen, Cameron Norrie, and Carlos Alcaraz. Zverev needed fifth-set tiebreakers against both Klein and Norrie but raised his level to beat Alcaraz 6-1, 6-3, 6-7(2), 6-4 in the quarters.
The road to the semifinals was similarly rough for Medvedev. His comeback from two sets down against Emil Ruusuvuori round two ended at 3:39 in the morning and he also went to five sets in the quarters, outlasting Hubert Hurkacz 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 after three hours and 59 minutes. Medvedev also got a fourth-set retirement from Terence Atmane, took care of Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets, and beat Nuno Borges in four.
Despite the world No. 6’s success last year, this matchup is a fun one–complete with consistently entertaining matches and not much love lost. In reality it’s also much closer to the overall 11-7 margin than the 5-1 edge Medvedev enjoyed in 2023.
With both players likely a little short on energy, the more offensive player who will be dictating play should have an edge. Especially if he serves like he did on Wednesday, that player is Zverev.
Pick: Zverev in 5
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