Aryna Sabalenka is a heavy favorite to lift the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup for a second consecutive year heading into Saturday’s Australian Open final against Qinwen Zheng.
It is a lopsided matchup on paper in part because Zheng is ranked 15th in the world and is playing in her first Grand Slam final. In fact, the 21-year-old had never advanced past the quarters at any major prior to this fortnight. Sabalenka, on the other hand, is No. 2 in the rankings and seeks her second slam title in her third final (defeated Elena Rybakina at the 2023 Aussie Open; lost to Coco Gauff at the 2023 U.S. Open).
Moreover, Sabalenka was utterly dominant during her trip to the championship match. The 25-year-old did not drop a single set to Ella Seidel, Brenda Fruhvirtova, Lesia Tsurenko, Amanda Anisimova, Barbora Krejcikova, or Gauff. Only Gauff managed to force a tiebreaker in any set; other than that, no set was closer than 6-3. Sabalenka destroyed Seidel 6-0, 6-1 and Tsurenko 6-0, 6-0.
Unsurprisingly, Zheng had much more difficulty advancing despite getting an incredibly favorable draw. China’s top player did not face a single seeded opponent en route to the final, beating Ashlyn Krueger, Katie Boulter, Yafan Wang, Oceane Dodin, Anna Kalinskaya, and Dayana Yastremska. Zheng needed three sets against both Wang (including a decisive tiebreaker) and Kalinskaya.
Also in Sabalenka’s favor is their only previous encounter. In the 2023 U.S. Open quarterfinals, the favorite cruised past Zheng 6-1, 6-4.
Amidst the pressure of a Grand Slam final, there is no reason to think the inexperienced underdog will be much more competitive this time around.
Pick: Sabalenka in 2
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