Rafael Nadal was not seriously tested in his comeback match at the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, but that figures to change in the second round.
After cruising past Flavio Cobolli 6-2, 6-3 on Tuesday afternoon, Nadal will face fourth-seeded Alex de Minaur on Wednesday. The 37-year-old Spaniard leads the head-to-head series 3-1, but they have squared off only once since 2020 and De Minaur won their most recent encounter 3-6, 6-1, 7-5 at last season’s United Cup.
In 15 months since then, Nadal has been almost entirely idle whereas De Minaur has soared to the highest points of his career. The 25-year-old Aussie recently broke into the top 10 and currently sits at No. 11 in the world with a 22-7 record so far in 2024. De Minaur, who earned a first-round bye in Barcelona, has won multiple matches in seven of eight appearances this season. That includes a title in Acapulco, a runner-up performance in Rotterdam, and a quarterfinal effort last week on the red clay of Monte-Carlo.
Nadal looked very good from the baseline in his first official match since the quarterfinals of the Brisbane International in January. However, presumably due to his recent injury troubles his serve was well short of 100 percent throughout his victory over Cobolli. Nadal got away with it against the 21-year-old Italian, but that may not be the case with one of the best returners in the world on the other side of the net in round two.
Clay obviously gives Nadal a chance in this matchup, but unless the service MPHs are ramped up in a big way it’s likely that an opponent of De Minaur’s caliber will be too tough at this stage of the 22-time Grand Slam champion’s comeback.
Pick: De Minaur in 3
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