Last summer, I wrote about how Aaron Civale “King Ralph-ed” his way into an exciting postseason race. The Rays entered the 2023 season with five playoff-caliber starting pitchers at the top of their depth chart and a star pitching prospect waiting in the wings. Yet after several major elbow injuries, they were forced to send a Top 100 prospect to Cleveland in exchange for Civale at the deadline. By August, the right-hander was Tampa Bay’s no. 3 starter. The beneficiary of so many others’ misfortunes, Civale went from a scuffling Guardians club to one of the best teams in the league.
Conversely, Civale probably would have preferred to be back in Cleveland this season. As of today, it’s the Guardians, not the Rays, who are competing with the Orioles for the best record in the American League. Meanwhile, it’s the Rays, not the Guardians, who are struggling to stay above .500 with the trade deadline fast approaching. Thus, I have no choice but to go back to the King Ralph parallel.
At the end of the movie, Ralph decides he’d rather return to his old life and abdicates the throne. However, when Ralph abdicates, his aging and childless successor, Sir Cedric, warns him that he might have to be king again once Cedric dies, leaving open the possibility for a sequel. King Ralph never got a second chapter, but as luck would have it, Civale just King Ralph-ed all over again. The rules of the CBA prevent him from simply packing up and heading back to Cleveland, but he’s just taken his place in a new Midwestern court.
The NL Central-leading Brewers have seen their rotation ravaged by injuries this season. In addition to Brandon Woodruff, who underwent shoulder surgery last fall, the Brewers will be without Wade Miley and Robert Gasser for the rest of the year. DL Hall has been on the injured list with a knee injury since mid-April, while Joe Ross went down with a back injury in mid-May. Hall and Ross are both on track to return at some point in July, but it’s hard to know what to expect from them when they return.
So they traded 20-year-old shortstop prospect Gregory Barrios to the Rays in exchange for Civale. Once again, due to the misfortune of others, Civale’s chances of pitching in the playoffs just got significantly better. The right-hander owns a 4.10 ERA and 4.11 FIP across 103 starts (562.1 IP) over his six-year big league career.
To that point, Civale’s primary identity is that of an innings eater. His career 100 ERA- is exactly league average, and he has averaged five and a half innings per outing since his major league debut. His strikeout rate jumped from 19.0% to 29.3% after the trade deadline. More strikeouts and fewer walks is almost always a sign of good things to come.
Further fueling rumblings of a breakout, Civale changed up his pitch mix with the Rays to achieve those results. Against same-handed hitters, he threw fewer curveballs and cutters. In their place, he was using more sliders and four-seam fastballs – pitches that typically work better when the pitcher has the platoon advantage. Lefty batters put up a .162 wOBA and .194 xwOBA against his sinker.
Unfortunately for Civale, those promising signs from last August and September have not carried over into 2024. What’s more, his 32.8% groundball rate (fourth-lowest among qualified pitchers) is at an all-time low. It’s probably not a coincidence that his 1.66 HR/9 is the highest among all qualified pitchers in either league.
At this point in his career, Civale likely is who he is. He has always liked to tinker, but the tinkering is just as much a survival strategy for a pitcher without overpowering stuff as it is an attempt to unlock something new. His 5.07 ERA and 4.69 FIP are higher than usual, but his 4.14 xERA and 4.09 xFIP sit pretty close to league average. He is averaging just over five frames per outing.
