C.J. Stroud Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

The NFL never stops. We may not have games anymore, but fantasy football values are always shuffling.

Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud’s dynasty value is on the rise after posting QB1 numbers in one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time. Where does his value stand heading into the offseason?

C.J. Stroud’s Dynasty Outlook

Are there enough superlatives to truly describe Stroud? I have not been this impressed with a rookie quarterback since Deshaun Watson in 2017. We have not seen a rookie quarterback selected in the top five of the NFL Draft look this good since Andrew Luck in 2012.

Operating with a relatively weak supporting cast on a team that was supposed to come in last, all Stroud did as a rookie was throw for 4,108 yards (in 15 games), 23 touchdowns, and averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the QB7. He not only took the Texans to the playoffs, he won a game.

The scouting reports on Stroud were mostly positive, but I highly doubt many fantasy managers out there expected him to become a viable fantasy starter from the moment he stepped foot on an NFL field.

It took exactly two weeks for Stroud to record his first 20-point effort and exactly three weeks for him to post a weekly QB1 finish. Stroud also displayed an incredibly high ceiling, scoring 41.8 fantasy points in Week 9.

There were no training wheels for the rookie. His 9.0 air yards per attempt ranked second in the league. His 8.2 yards per attempt was good for third. Stroud is already one of the best deep-ball passers in the league, completing nearly 50% of downfield throws.

I like Nico Collins and Tank Dell as much as the next guy, but let’s not pretend that Stroud stepped into an environment where he was surrounded by offensive weapons. Stroud made these guys, not the other way around.

Stroud’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Stroud land in the dynasty QB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Stroud lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

Jason Katz’s Top 40 QB Rankings

1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Josh Allen | BUF
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI
4) Lamar Jackson | BAL
5) Joe Burrow | CIN
6) C.J. Stroud | HOU
7) Justin Herbert | LAC
8) Dak Prescott | DAL
9) Anthony Richardson | IND
10) Kyler Murray | ARI
11) Brock Purdy | SF
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
13) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
14) Justin Fields | CHI
15) Jordan Love | GB
16) Jared Goff | DET
17) Bryce Young | CAR
18) Kirk Cousins | MIN
19) Matthew Stafford | LAR
20) Deshaun Watson | CLE

21) Will Levis | TEN
22) Geno Smith | SEA
23) Baker Mayfield | TB
24) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ
25) Derek Carr | NO
26) Daniel Jones | NYG
27) Russell Wilson | DEN
28) Jake Browning | CIN
29) Gardner Minshew II | IND
30) Joe Flacco | CLE
31) Kenny Pickett | PIT
32) Sam Howell | WAS
33) Aidan O’Connell | LV
34) Jimmy Garoppolo | LV
35) Ryan Tannehill | TEN
36) Trey Lance | DAL
37) Mason Rudolph | PIT
38) Jacoby Brissett | WAS
39) Zach Wilson | NYJ
40) Hendon Hooker | DET

Should You Trade Stroud in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Stroud? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!

We should expect the Texans to continue supporting Stroud with talent. Collins and Dell look to be a very good receiver duo. Eventually, though, I expect Stroud to have even better weapons. He looks like the type of quarterback established veterans looking for a change of scenery will want to play with.

MORE: Consensus Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

Stroud will be 23 years old this season. He is poised to be a high-level NFL starter for the next 15 years. Fantasy managers with Stroud look to have their quarterback position solved.

However, I would be remiss not to point out the one slight flaw in Stroud’s profile. He is not a runner. While not a statute in the mold of Tom Brady or Philip Rivers, nearly all of Stroud’s fantasy production is going to come through the air. He only ran for 11.1 yards per game last season.

In the modern NFL, it is very difficult for a quarterback to be truly elite in fantasy without significant rushing upside. It took Dak Prescott 36 passing touchdowns to get to 20.7 fantasy points per game. By contrast, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson threw for 23 and 24 scores, respectively. That’s what rushing can do.

Stroud is going to have a high annual ceiling. He will have a bunch of 30+ touchdown years. But if he’s going to consistently average over 20 fantasy points per game, he will need to work harder through the air than most of his peers. By no means is this a recommendation to trade Stroud. It’s just something to keep in mind.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.