The AFC West has belonged to the Kansas City Chiefs for the past seven seasons, with the club’s divisional dominance predating Patrick Mahomes’ NFL arrival. But while the Chiefs appeared to be cruising toward another division title earlier this season, their struggles — combined with the Denver Broncos’ surprising resurgence — have made things interesting with four weeks remaining in the regular season.
What do the AFC West playoff scenarios look like in Week 15? With the help of PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s look at what needs to happen for Kansas City and Denver. Plus, do the Los Angeles Chargers or Las Vegas Raiders still have a shot?
AFC West Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 15
Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos
The Chiefs are 8-5 after losing their last two games, while the Broncos, having won six of their last seven, are 7-6. A one-game lead with four weeks to go obviously isn’t insurmountable, but Denver is still considered a longshot to win the AFC West. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) considers Kansas City the overwhelming favorite, giving them a 93.1% chance of securing the division crown.
Neither club will face an overly difficult schedule down the stretch. The Chiefs get the England Patriots, Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, and Los Angeles Chargers, while the Broncos will play the Detroit Lions, Patriots, Chargers, and Raiders. PFN’s strength of schedule matrix rates KC’s slate as the fifth-easiest in the league; Denver’s isn’t much more challenging.
Theoretically, the Chiefs could clinch the AFC West as soon as Week 16. If they go 2-0 over the next two weeks while the Broncos go 0-2, Kansas City would have a three-game lead with two games left.
But the divisional standings could get much more complicated. The Chiefs and Broncos have already split their season series. If they were to finish the season with identical records, their marks within the AFC West would determine who finishes first.
As things stand, Denver is 2-2 within the AFC West, while Kansas City is 3-1. The Broncos have to play the Chargers twice and the Raiders once down the stretch. Therefore, Denver can reach a maximum of 4-2 in the division. That means they need the Chiefs to lose one of their remaining two games against the Raiders or Chargers.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
If the Broncos and Chiefs end up tied and have the same division record, the NFL’s tiebreaking procedures will then shift to record against common opponents. Kansas City is currently 6-3 with three games to play against common opponents to both the Chiefs and Broncos. Denver is 5-3, with all four of its remaining games coming against common opponents.
The AFC West standings will not change no matter what happens in Week 15. Even if the Chiefs and Broncos emerge with matching 8-6 records, Kansas City’s divisional record will keep them atop the AFC West. However, Denver’s chances of winning the division would jump to 20% in that scenario.
Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders
The game on Thursday between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders clarified the picture in the bottom half of the AFC West. The Raiders are at 6-8 and third in the division. They still have just a 0.3% chance of winning the division and a 1.4% chance of making the playoffs. However, their victory ensured they can not be eliminated from either this week.
The same can not be said for the Chargers. At 5-9, they are on the verge of elimination from AFC West contention. A win or a tie for the Chiefs or a victory for the Broncos will eliminate the Chargers in the division. Additionally, a very complex set of permutations could see them eliminated from the playoffs this week.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
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