Liverpool’s Struggles Continue in the Premier League
This season has been challenging for Liverpool. Manager Arne Slot expressed his astonishment at the unexpected struggles of the squad as they prepare to face PSV in the Champions League.
Currently, Liverpool finds itself ranked 12th in the league, an unexpected position for the reigning champions who spent over half a billion dollars on new signings this summer. The team has given up 20 goals, has a negative goal differential, and their points tally at this stage is one of the lowest for a defending champion. They are now 11 points off the top spot and only seven points ahead of the relegation zone.
Statistically, this season marks the worst defensive performance for Liverpool at this point since the 2008-09 campaign. Last season, when they won the league, they conceded just eight goals after the first 12 matches, compared to 20 this year.
Despite retaining the same defensive lineup and investing in new fullbacks to strengthen the back line, the team has allowed more goals than all but four teams at the bottom of the standings. On the offensive side, the club boasts a collection of talented attackers but has surprisingly not scored 20 goals in their first 12 matches, the first time in a decade for such a performance.
New signings like Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz, the most expensive transfers in English football history, have yet to contribute to the score sheet, combining for only one assist. The team’s most promising player from the summer is Hugo Ekitike, a center forward with just three goals since the season started, and Mohamed Salah is now producing fewer goals and assists than Casemiro.
With hopes of turning their season around, Liverpool faces a daunting task. Bookmakers and analytical models give them only a 5% chance of recovering to compete with teams above them in the standings. They still need to prove their ability to overcome their current challenges after suffering a humiliating 3-0 loss at home to a team that has recently changed coaches twice, signaling a significant decline.
This downfall can often be observed in the Premier League after a team wins the title, as defending champions frequently experience a decline in performance.
The Challenge of Winning Consecutive Premier League Titles
In the history of the Premier League, only 11 out of 32 seasons have featured back-to-back champions. Notably, successful teams typically were coached by Sir Alex Ferguson, owned by affluent individuals, or found themselves under financial scrutiny.
Manchester United achieved this feat six times, followed by Manchester City with four titles and Chelsea with one. Most repeat champions had robust financial backings and world-class managerial talent.
Only a handful of clubs improved upon their performance in their second title-winning season. For instance:
- Manchester United, 1999-2000: Increased from 79 to 91 points.
- Manchester City, 2021-2022: Rose from 86 to 93 points.
- Manchester City, 2023-24: Improved slightly from 89 to 91 points.
Conversely, several clubs have seen significant declines after their title-winning seasons, such as:
- Blackburn Rovers, 1995-96: Dropped from 89 to 61 points.
- Liverpool, 2020-21: Fell from 99 points to 69 points.
- Chelsea, 2015-16: Slumped from 87 to 50 points.
On average, title winners see a decrease in points and performance levels the following season, indicating the difficulty in repeating such success.
Why is Repeating so Difficult?
Looking at the seasons before winning the title, the average performance shows around an 80-point achievement. This trend reveals that to win the league, clubs often need everything to align perfectly without over-reliance on fortunate circumstances.
For example, Liverpool’s previous season was marked by an optimal situation: key players maintaining fitness, tactical suitability of the new manager’s approach, and exceptional individual performances. However, this year, it seems they’ve encountered the opposite.
With expectations high at the season’s onset, Liverpool was seen as a favorite, yet they find themselves struggling significantly. Their past stability has now turned into realization that they are unlikely to claim the Premier League title this time around.
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