Christian Walker may not be playing in Arlington tonight, but he just wrapped up an All-Star level first half. The Diamondbacks first baseman came into the All-Star break ranked third in the National League with 22 home runs, fifth with 66 RBI, and among the top 15 qualified batters in wOBA (.357), xwOBA (.365), and wRC+ (131). His 10 OAA are third-most among NL fielders, while his 7 DRS, 4.1 UZR, and 8 FRV are all the top marks at his position.
Thanks to his spectacular defensive performance, the two-time Gold Glove winner is the only qualified NL first baseman who has provided positive defensive value at first despite the hefty positional adjustment. On top of that, he has played in all 97 of Arizona’s games so far, putting him on pace for more than 700 plate appearances this season. Add his offense, defense, and durability together and you get 2.9 WAR, which places Walker in the top 15 among NL position players and top 30 in the majors.
Considering that 46 position players were invited to the Midsummer Classic this year, it’s hard to deny that Walker is having an All-Star worthy season. At the same time, it’s also hard to get too fired up about his “snub.” Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman have put up superior offensive numbers and WAR totals, rightfully earning the two guaranteed spots for first basemen on the NL roster. In addition, three NL players with more WAR and arguably even stronger All-Star cases than Walker were also left off the squad: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Willy Adames.
Still, it’s a shame that Walker’s excellent first half will go unrewarded. At 33 years old, the late bloomer is putting together the best season of his career at the plate and in the field. Surely, that deserves to be celebrated. Walker has been a regression candidate since the moment he first tasted big league success. Following his breakout rookie season in 2019 (111 wRC+, 3.0 WAR), ZiPS projected a step back in ’20; as Dan Szymborski put it, “The projections aren’t completely sold on Christian Walker, still seeing him as a league-average first baseman.”
It’s not difficult to understand why ZiPS was skeptical of Walker. At 29 years old, he had only one successful major league season under his belt, and no projection system could expect him to maintain his ridiculous defensive numbers at first base. ZiPS wasn’t wrong, either, as he took a significant step back in 2020 and an even bigger step back in ’21. Thus, the system was still skeptical of Walker after his second breakout season in 2022.
Although Walker slugged 36 home runs, led first basemen with 14 OAA, and finished with 4.0 WAR, Dan included him on his list of ZiPS bust hitters entering 2023, describing him as “clearly not a star, just a good league-average first baseman coming off a peak year.” Yet, lo and behold, Walker almost perfectly replicated his 2022 season in ’23. He finished with a 120 wRC+ and 3.9 WAR, while deservedly winning his second Gold Glove in as many years.
When Walker spoke to David Laurila ahead of the 2023 season, he explained how “data and hard numbers” have helped him trust his process during difficult stretches. Underlying Walker’s career-best 131 wRC+ is a career-best 103.4 EV50 and a career-best 36.3% sweet-spot rate, resulting in a career-best 15.7% barrel rate. He has also increased his pull rate and lowered his opposite field rate on fly balls. In fact, nearly all of his extra-base hits have been pulled this year, which stands out compared to last year, when he sprayed the ball to all fields.
This could be a warning sign that Walker is selling out to pull more fastballs as he ages. However, his bat speed remains elite, and he has done more damage on curveballs, changeups, and sweepers than he has on all other pitches this season. That’s not what you’d expect from a hitter sitting fastball.
Walker is striking out noticeably more often this season, but his underlying plate discipline data shows positive signs. His whiff rate and swinging-strike rate are slightly down from last season. His first-pitch strike rate is also down, and he has been more successful when starting plate appearances ahead in the count.
I’m inclined to believe Walker’s rising strikeout rate is the result of conscious decision-making at the plate rather than an inability to keep up with opposing pitchers. He has been far more likely to whiff with two strikes this season, yet his wOBA, xwOBA, and run value in two-strike counts are all higher this year than in any other full season.
As luck would have it, Walker is enjoying this excellent season with his first foray into free agency on the horizon. His name has come up in a bit of trade speculation; earlier this month, Jon Heyman called Walker the Astros’ “dream target” ahead of the deadline. It seems unlikely that the reigning NL champs would sell this summer, especially now that they are back above .500 and just a game behind the Mets for the final wild card spot.
