Check out our expert picks for each of the College Football Playoff semifinal games on New Year’s Day as well as the odds and lines.
The final four of the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines, No. 2 Washington Huskies, No. 3 Texas Longhorns and No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide will battle it out to become national champions in January.
This is the last year that we’ll have the current format of four teams before it switches to 12 in 2024, so there’s a chance to make history before the CFP is never the same again.
We’ve compiled expert picks for each of the semifinals with odds and lines detailed below.
No. 1 Michigan Wolverines vs No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide Expert Picks
- Michigan Wolverines -1.5 & JJ McCarthy over 190.5 passing yards @ +200
Despite public betting figures showing that bettors are preferring Alabama, we’re sticking with the top ranked team in the country to reign supreme in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.
JJ McCarthy needs to be at his best for Michigan to get over the line. In each of his last four outings he’s failed to throw for over 150 yards, so the Wolverines need to get back to the dominance they showed at the start of the season.
Michigan are 13-0 for good reason and they’ve earned the top seed in the rankings. The Wolverines will need to do one hell of a job to limit Alabama signal caller Jalen Milroe, who hasn’t thrown a pick since November.
The Crimson Tide rank 125th in the nation having allowed 43 sacks this season and Michigan’s pass rush could be the key to the game. The Wolverines defense has been suffocating all year long, sacking the opposing QB 33 times.
Milroe completes just 45% of his passes when placed under pressure and Michigan need to bring the heat.
No. 1 Michigan Wolverines vs No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Michigan Wolverines: -125 | Alabama Crimson Tide: +105
- Point Spread: Wolverines (-1.5) -110 | Crimson Tide (+1.5) -110
- Total Points: Over 45.0 –110 | Under 45.0 -110
Almost that time 🌹⏳
Take a look at Jalen Milroe & JJ McCarthy’s stats from their last 5️⃣ games 👀 pic.twitter.com/2A3XrvpTBW
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 29, 2023
No. 2 Washington Huskies vs No. 3 Texas Longhorns Picks
- Washington Huskies Moneyline & Michael Penix Jr. Over 2.5 Passing TDs @ +280
The Washington Huskies enter their semifinal against the Texas Longhorns as the 11th ranked offensive team in the country, putting up 37.7 points per game led by Heisman Trophy finalist Michael Penix Jr. at QB.
Penix Jr. leads college football with 4,218 passing yards this season but he’ll face a different type of defense against Texas, so it’s important for Washington that he’s at his best on the day.
A slight bit of doubt over Texas QB Quinn Ewers is my main reasoning for favoring Washington in this match-up. He turned the ball over seven times in his final seven starts and it wasn’t that long ago he missed two games through injury.
The Longhorns are also missing star running back Jonathon Brooks, who tallied 1,139 yards on the ground and ten touchdowns this season. Whilst his absence didn’t impact their run game for the rest of the regular season, it could have a glaring impact on the biggest stage.
Their star wide receiver Xavier Worthy suffered an ankle injury in the Big-12 title game and he’ll face an extremely tough match-up with Washington cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, who has shut down a number of top wideouts this season.
Washington’s biggest strength is their pass game and Texas may not have all the answers to cope with Penix Jr.’s quality. He’s the best deep thrower in the country and Texas safety Derek Williams Jr will miss the first half of the game after being ejected in the Big-12 title game.
No. 2 Washington Huskies vs No. 3 Texas Longhorns Odds & Lines
- Moneyline: Washington Huskies: +155 | Texas Longhorns: -185
- Point Spread: Huskies (+4.0) -110 | Longhorns (-4.0) -110
- Total Points: Over 63.5 –110 | Under 63.5 -110
Pass att % when moved off spot (2023)
Michael Penix – 71%
Caleb Williams – 65%
Bo Nix – 65%
JJ McCarthy – 52%
Drake Maye – 48%
Jayden Daniels – 20% (lowest in FBS)for reference, the NFL high is 74%, average is 57% and the lowest is 38%
— Anthony Treash (@PFF_Anthony) December 22, 2023
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