The thing is: They could win! The Commanders’ league-worst defense may finally meet its match in the Jets’ league-worst offense. But New York has an edge on the other side of the ball — the Jets’ defense is very good — and sportsbooks generally consider the Jets roughly three-point favorites.
But New York’s quarterback situation is rough. Zach Wilson remains in concussion protocol, so the Jets are in line to start Trevor Siemian, the 31-year-old journeyman who hasn’t won a game as a starter since 2017 and who struggled last week.
Let’s dig into the stats to break down the Commanders’ Week 16 matchup.
If the Commanders lose out, they’ll have an 81 percent chance at a top-three pick, according to ESPN Analytics. Washington benefits this week because the teams it’s sandwiched between, Chicago and Arizona, are playing each other. The first tiebreaker for draft order is strength of schedule — determined by opponents’ combined winning percentage — and the second is head-to-head record.
Since Week 11, when the offense started to decline, quarterback Sam Howell’s accuracy has suffered. He’s seemed less patient and less confident in his pre-snap reads, and his percentage of off-target throws has risen from a season-long rate of 12.9 percent to 16.7 percent, the worst in the NFL.
The off-target metric seems like one symptom of a broader illness. This week, offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy said he wanted Howell to be more confident and decisive. It will be a tough ask against Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets’ elite corners. But throwing confidently and in rhythm could help Howell.
“It’s always better to be decisive than to be right,” Bieniemy said. “If you’re decisive with the football, guess what? Chances are that you’re probably right. That just means that you’re not second guessing yourself.”
Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers tore the Achilles’ tendon in his left leg on Sept. 11. According to guidance from the Cleveland Clinic, it takes about four to six months for a torn Achilles’ to heal — and longer for a person to safely resume football activities, such as running and jumping. Rodgers suggested all year that he could return to the field in as fast as three months. It seemed possible that return could come against the Commanders.
After the Jets were eliminated from playoff contention last week, Rodgers said he was not 100 percent and did not plan to play this season.
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