Commanders stats of the week: The No. 2 pick is attainable

A Dallas victory would clinch the NFC East title. And the Commanders have plenty at stake, too — through not for the current regime. A teardown and rebuild are ahead for Washington, and a loss to Dallas would help its odds of picking second in April’s draft.

Here are some numbers worth knowing ahead of the Commanders’ final game.

69 percent chance of the No. 2 pick

According to ESPN, the Commanders have a 91 percent chance of getting a top-three pick in the draft and a 69 percent chance holding on to No. 2 slot. Consider it the silver lining of a lost season.

Washington, New England (currently No. 3) and Arizona (No. 4) are 4-12 heading into the final week, but Washington has a higher draft slot because of its strength of schedule, the first tiebreaker. Entering Week 18, the Commanders’ average opponent winning percentage (.515) is worse than the other two teams in contention for the second pick but only marginally worse than New England’s (.518).

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Because strength of schedule fluctuates each week, Washington (assuming it loses to Dallas) could need help from other teams — including Pittsburgh, Houston, New Orleans, Green Bay and Las Vegas — to keep the No. 2 pick if the Patriots lose to the New York Jets. The Atlanta-New Orleans game would matter most. The Commanders defeated the Falcons in Week 6, and the Patriots lost to the Saints in Week 5. Should the Falcons win in New Orleans, they would knock Washington out of the No. 2 spot.

Terry McLaurin needs 54 receiving yards to become the first receiver in franchise history to have four consecutive seasons with at least 1,000. Gary Clark and Art Monk are the only receivers in Washington history to have at least four seasons (nonconsecutive) of 1,000-plus yards. They each had five.

What makes McLaurin’s feat especially impressive is he has recorded such numbers while playing with 11 quarterbacks in his five seasons in the NFL. He has caught a pass from 10 of them, not including his 28-yard catch from tight end Logan Thomas on a trick play against the Cowboys in 2020.

The Commanders have failed to get the production and consistency they’ve needed from their draft picks, this season especially. Cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. hasn’t played to the level most would expect from a first-round pick and was benched earlier in the season. He also missed time with an elbow injury. Third-round center Ricky Stromberg was injured in Week 4, and fourth-round tackle Braeden Daniels was placed on injured reserve before the season. Fifth-rounder KJ Henry and seventh-rounder Andre Jones Jr. got more playing time at defensive end following the trades of Chase Young and Montez Sweat, but neither is polished or consistent enough to solidify a roster spot next season. And sixth-round running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. showed the potential to be a reliable back, but his time was limited, and an ankle injury cut his season short.

Chase Young’s return highlights Ron Rivera’s disappointing first-round picks

Second-round defensive back Quan Martin has shown the greatest progress, with big plays, versatility and a clearer understanding of the defense.

Looking at the bigger picture: Only two of the 15 players the Commanders drafted in the past two years are on track to play a full 17-game slate since entering the league: receiver Jahan Dotson and quarterback Sam Howell. Dotson missed time last season because of injury, and Howell appeared only in Week 18. Should both play Sunday, they’ll be the first among either draft class to see the field for a full season.