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Commanders stats vs. 49ers: Time to keep on losing

Commanders stats vs. 49ers: Time to keep on losing


It’s one of the least consequential late-season Washington Commanders games in recent memory. It’s on New Year’s Eve. There’s no young, exciting quarterback to glimpse, like Sam Howell in the 2022 finale, and there’s little chance of an upset spoiling draft position, like last week against the New York Jets. The San Francisco 49ers have one of the league’s best rosters, including several jilted former members of the Commanders organization, and are favored by 12.5 points.

Washington, which benched Howell for veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett, can gain little in the long term beyond the individual development of non-quarterbacks and a loss that would help it maintain a high draft pick.

Every Commanders loss from here is a win

But my editor says I have to keep giving my fellow football sickos stats to know. So here we go.

.518 opponent winning percentage

Washington holds the No. 3 pick over New England even though it has the same record (4-11) and beat New England earlier this year. That’s because the first tiebreaker for NFL draft order is strength of schedule, calculated by average opponent winning percentage. Washington’s strength of schedule is .518, and New England’s is .522.

Strength of schedule is a critical number to watch for draft order over the next two weeks, though it’s hard to predict where it’ll end up. The good news for Washington is its last two opponents (San Francisco and Dallas) are tougher than New England’s (Buffalo and the Jets).

2.5 sacks in San Francisco

Chase Young returns to Washington for the first time since being traded to San Francisco in November. The former No. 2 pick has been a rotational edge rusher for the 49ers, playing 54 percent of the snaps and generating a very good pressure rate of 13.3 percent. But he hasn’t made many splash plays: 2.5 sacks, one batted pass and one tackle for loss.

Young told 49ers reporters this will be just another game for him. But star edge rusher Nick Bosa, who also mentored Young at Ohio State, had a different view.

Chase Young’s return highlights Ron Rivera’s disappointing first-round picks

“This week is a huge one for him,” Bosa told reporters. “He’s already pretty hyped up about it and excited, so we’re going to try to play our best game for him.”

There are a lot of ways to illustrate the 49ers’ offensive greatness this season. Coach Kyle Shanahan, one of the best play-callers in the league, consistently schemes up explosive plays for quarterback Brock Purdy and his superhero-stuffed supporting cast. But one cool way is to point out that defenses often stuff the tackle box: Running back Christian McCaffrey has faced eight-man boxes on 36 percent of his rushes this season, and the Niners’ offense has faced them on 32 percent of snaps overall. Both of those are highest rates in the NFL for their respective categories.

But the thing is, it doesn’t matter. The 49ers have remained, even in those situations, efficient, successful and explosive. Don’t expect Shanahan to go easy on his old team.



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