Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
The Cardinals survived Willson Contreras‘ first extended absence due to injury, going 24-16 while their catcher/designated hitter was sidelined for six weeks due to a fractured left forearm. Despite his loss, the ineffectiveness of cornerstones Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, and a host of other issues, they were still in contention for a playoff spot when the July 30 trade deadline approached — not in great shape, but with a roster worth augmenting for the stretch run.
But by the time Contreras suffered a fractured middle finger on his right hand as a result of an errant Pablo López pitch on August 24, it was clear that this wouldn’t be the Cardinals’ year. They had already shaken up their roster with a couple of notable demotions, and by the end of the month, they let deadline acquisition Tommy Pham depart via waivers.
The Cardinals aren’t the only team whose playoff hopes withered some time between the trade deadline and Labor Day, just the one that made the most noise on the transaction wire. Based on the changes in our Playoff Odds, here are the teams that suffered the steepest declines from the close of play on July 29 (i.e., the day before the deadline) through Monday:
**Largest Drops in Playoff Odds Since Trade Deadline**
| Team | W | L | W% | Div | WC | Playoffs |
|———–|—–|—–|——|—–|—–|———-|
| Mariners | 56 | 52 | .519 | 40.6% | 8.3% | 48.9% |
| Red Sox | 56 | 50 | .528 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 42.0% |
| Cardinals | 54 | 52 | .509 | 7.9% | 14.9% | 22.7% |
| Giants | 53 | 55 | .491 | 0.4% | 17.3% | 17.6% |
| Pirates | 54 | 52 | .509 | 5.8% | 10.1% | 15.9% |
| Mets | 56 | 50 | .528 | 1.5% | 50.0% | 51.6% |
All categories ending in 1 (W1, L1, etc.) as of close of play on July 29, all ending in 2 as of close of play on Sept. 2.
As you can see from the table, not all of these situations are alike. The Mariners and Mets had roughly a coin-flip chance of making the playoffs as of July 29, and the Red Sox’s odds weren’t much lower. The other teams were long shots to begin with; they hadn’t thrown in the towel yet, but things haven’t gone their way since, and by now their demises have simplified the playoff picture.
What follows here is a closer look at each of those situations, starting from the bottom of the table.
**Mets**
The lone team here with a winning record since the trade deadline (18-14) — and thus more than a faint chance of making the playoffs — is one that figured to spend this season retooling following last summer’s sell-off. With Kodai Senga shelved due to a shoulder strain, and Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil among their regulars off to slow starts, the Mets were 11 games below .500 as of June 2 (24-35). But between the return of Francisco Alvarez from a left thumb sprain, the addition and surprising breakout of infielder/budding pop star Jose Iglesias, the emergence of Mark Vientos as an offensive force, and the MVP-caliber play of Lindor, the Mets climbed off the mat.
**Pirates**
Despite their current record, this has easily been the Pirates’ most interesting season since 2018, when they finished 82-79, and perhaps their most interesting since their ’13–15 run of three straight Wild Card teams. That’s thanks in large part to a revamped rotation featuring rookies Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, as well as the return of Oneil Cruz after a season lost to a fractured ankle. The Pirates bolted from the gate, winning nine of their first 11 games, but they were nonetheless just 17-22 when Skenes, last year’s no. 1 draft pick, debuted on May 11. He quickly took his place among the majors’ most dominant pitchers, throwing six hitless innings with 11 strikeouts in his second start on May 17, and has delivered a 2.23 ERA and 2.72 FIP with a 32.3% strikeout rate, second among qualified starters since his arrival.
**Giants**
The February and March additions of Jorge Soler, Blake Snell, and Matt Chapman boosted the Giants’ odds to 43.4%, the sixth-highest in the NL. Perhaps because they didn’t have normal springs to prepare, however, all three started slowly, and the rest of the team plodded on as well. The Giants were just 29-29 at the end of May, and 41-44 at the end of June, with Snell carrying a 9.51 ERA into July while landing on the injured list twice. The team actually didn’t spend a day in July above .500, and they dealt Soler and Alex Cobb away but held onto Snell despite heavy interest; they also added Bay Area favorite Mark Canha from the Tigers. Snell rewarded the Giants’ faith by throwing a no-hitter against the Reds on August 2, part of an 8-2 run that propelled the Giants to a season-high three games above .500 (61-58) as of August 10. The problem by then was that the Padres and Diamondbacks had surged to the top of the Wild Card standings — and even put a scare into the NL West-leading Dodgers — leaving the Giants in the dust: After that, the Giants lost four in a row, and they’ve continued to slide to the point that they’re back below .500 again thanks in large part to an offense that’s hit just .220/.280/.376 since the deadline, with an 84 wRC+, tied with the Rockies for the NL’s worst in that span. Should have stuck with the Soler power, amirite?
**Cardinals**
Despite their rocky start and the loss of their best hitter, the Cardinals…
