Did Back-to-Back Losses Doom Steelers’ Postseason Hopes?

The Pittsburgh Steelers enter their Week 15 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts inside the AFC playoff picture, but their position as a postseason contender is tenuous.

Not only have the Steelers suffered embarrassing back-to-back losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots, but they’ll be without starting quarterback Kenny Pickett for several games after he underwent surgery to repair a high ankle sprain earlier this month.

Can Pittsburgh solidify its place in the playoff race on Sunday? Here’s how the club’s postseason chances could be altered in Week 15.

How the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Chances Can Change in Week 15

Despite falling to 7-6 last Thursday night, the Steelers are still the AFC’s No. 6 seed heading into Week 15, trailing the Cleveland Browns (No. 6) but ahead of Indianapolis (No. 7).

But ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the fellow AFC Wild Card contender Buffalo Bills (47.4%), Houston Texans (45%), Denver Broncos (44.8%), and Colts (40.1%) a better chance of making the postseason than Pittsburgh (31.8%).

Backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky is a downgrade over Pickett, while the Steelers will face the NFL’s fifth-hardest schedule by DVOA to close the campaign, with matchups against the Colts, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens leaving little margin for error.

Of course, that rest-of-season slate will also let Pittsburgh play its way into the postseason, starting with its Saturday contest against Garnder Minshew II and the Colts. If the Steelers can defeat Indy in Week 15, its playoff chances will increase from one in three to roughly 50%.

For Pittsburgh, a best-case scenario this week includes not just a win but losses by the Bengals, Broncos, Texans, and Tennessee Titans. In that case, its postseason odds would rise to 63%.

On the flip side, if the Steelers lose to the Colts this week, their chances of earning a Wild Card berth will slip below 10%. If those other four games don’t go Pittsburgh’s way, its odds will fall to just 3%.

MORE: Pittsburgh Steelers Depth Chart

The Steelers’ post-Week 15 ceiling is the AFC’s fifth seed, achieved via a Pittsburgh win and a Cleveland loss. A Week 15 loss will move the Steelers into the No. 7 seed, at best.

Pittsburgh will exit the playoff picture entirely if they lose and any other AFC Wild Card contender wins this weekend.

Can the Steelers Still Win the AFC North?

The Steelers are three games behind the Ravens in the AFC North with four weeks to go, so overtaking John Harbaugh’s team to claim the division title certainly won’t be simple, especially without Pickett under center.

But theoretically, it’s not impossible.

For starters, Pittsburgh already defeated Baltimore this year, winning a 17-10 game in Week 5 that gives the Steelers a head-to-head tiebreaker.

Plus, the Steelers will face the Ravens again in the regular-season finale, although that contest will be in Baltimore. Pickett was expected to miss two to four weeks from the time of his injury, so he could return for Week 18.

The Ravens’ unforgiving schedule — even more challenging than the Steelers’ — could be Pittsburgh’s saving grace. Baltimore has to play the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, and Miami Dolphins over the next three weeks. If the Ravens lose all three games, the Steelers could lose one of its next three and still grab the AFC North crown with a win over Baltimore in Week 18.

Of course, the odds of that happening are incredibly low, especially because Pittsburgh also has to leap Cleveland and watch out for Cincinnati in the division standings. As such, FPI pegs the Steelers’ chances of winning the AFC North at just 1.8%.

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