Once considered the natural successor to Clayton Kershaw as The Man in the Dodgers’ rotation, Walker Buehler’s career hit a rocky stretch in 2022. Coming off arguably his best season in the majors, Buehler was pulled from a June start with elbow pain, starting a journey that ended with a Tommy John surgery, the second of his career, two months later. After some unrelated injury setbacks this spring, Buehler returned to the Dodgers, but as a shadow of his former self. He finished 2024 with a 5.38 ERA and a 5.54 FIP, and might not have even made the postseason roster if not for the fact that most of the organization’s other plausible starters don’t currently have working throwing arms. His no-strikeout, six-run outing against the Padres in Game 3 of the NLDS wasn’t an inspiring sign that he’d turn things around in the playoffs. And yet, in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Mets at Citi Field, Buehler had opposing batters flailing at his shockingly nasty repertoire in a short but effective four-inning start. He left with a two-run lead, but after the Los Angeles offense kept tacking on and the bullpen threw five scoreless innings, the Dodgers left the ballpark Wednesday night with an 8-0 win and a 2-1 advantage in the best-of-seven series.
One of the problems with Buehler in his return this year was that he was just so darn hittable at times. Before 2022, his four-seamer was the foundation that his out-pitches were built around, but even before his elbow surgery, the effectiveness of the pitch had practically disappeared. From 2021 to 2022, he bled about 200 rpm off his fastball’s average spin rate. Batters apparently took notice, suddenly slugging .618 as his heater lost some of its rise. Buehler returned from surgery, but the four-seamer’s effectiveness did not, and the pitch became a smaller part of his toolset. The story of Buehler’s start on Wednesday was the effectiveness of his knuckle-curve and sweeper, which combined for 12 whiffs out of 16 swings, a contact rate that would earn you a sympathy card from Javier Báez. The curve is the pitch that most intrigued me during the game, as it had a bit of a different look than it typically does, with a spin rate about 150 rpm lower than usual, giving the pitch a tumbling action that pushed more to the knuckler side of the knuckle-curve spectrum. Our own Matt Martell was at the game and inquired about the pitch at the post-game presser, and while Buehler said he hadn’t done any active tinkering with the pitch, it was a much livelier offering on the chilly night (51 degrees at game time). If anything, Buehler’s stuff was a bit too nasty – the sinker also had some filthy arm-side movement – and he missed the zone enough to grant the Mets some walks and hitter-friendly counts.
This is what got Buehler into some trouble across his four innings and offered the Mets a few chances to take control of the game. The most dangerous juncture came with one out in the bottom of the second, when New York loaded the bases on a walk, an infield single, and another walk. With little margin for error, Buehler did something he said he never would’ve done before his second Tommy John surgery: He pitched backwards. He started Francisco Alvarez off with a knuckle-curve, which the struggling catcher swung at and missed. Buehler then got a called second strike with a sweeper at the knees. On 0-2, he spiked a sweeper in the dirt that Alvarez laid off easily. After three straight breaking balls, Buehler finally went to his four-seamer, missing up and away for ball two. With the count even, he dialed up another heater, this one 94 mph on the black outside. Alvarez took it for a called third strike and the second out. Next up was Francisco Lindor, whose go-ahead grand slam in the Mets’ previous home playoff game sent them to the NLCS. Buehler missed low with a first-pitch knuckle-curve, then evened the count with a high heater that Lindor swung through for strike one. Buehler went back to the knuckle-curve in the dirt, this time fooling Lindor, who whiffed at it for the second strike. Ahead in the count, Buehler tried the same thing, but Lindor wasn’t fooled again and this time spat on it for ball two. Time to change his eye level: Buehler went back to the high heat, which Lindor popped foul out of play behind the plate, and then doubled up on it — this one above the zone for ball three. After back-to-back four-seamers up, Buehler spun a full-count curve in the zone. Lindor unleashed a healthy hack but came up empty. Inning over.
The next threat against Buehler came in the third when Mark Vientos led off the inning with a single and Starling Marte was hit by a pitch with two outs. But after making J.D. Martinez miss a sweeper by a mile, Buehler did it a second time to get the final out and escape danger again. The fourth was an uneventful inning for him, and he was pulled for Michael Kopech to start the fifth. While Buehler had been effective, the occasional lapses in command meant that he hadn’t been very efficient, needing 90 pitches to get through four innings. After getting all they could have hoped for from his start, the Dodgers avoided trying to gild the lily. In all, Buehler got 18 whiffs in 34 swings, giving the Mets a below-50% contact rate. It was the first time in over three years that Buehler had 18 whiffs in a start, since his final outing of the 2021 regular season, when he garnered 20 whiffs on 37 swings. Buehler’s effort would have been for naught if the Dodgers offense didn’t deliver. The first two runs, in the second inning, were collected in deliciously retro style. A walk, an error, a groundout, and an infield single got the Dodgers their first run without the ball even getting out of the infield, while a Tommy Edman sac fly drove home Teoscar Hernández for the second. Luis Severino did keep the Mets in the game, and though his stuff wasn’t quite as sharp as Buehler’s, he escaped some land mines of his own. Usually a secondary weapon, Severino heavily featured his cutter in Game 3, throwing it 24 times, the second-most in his career. This wasn’t always to his benefit; the Dodgers connected with eight of the nine cutters they swung at and mostly ignored the ones thrown out of the zone (13 of 17). Severino allowed four walks in his 4 2/3 innings and just barely escaped a bases loaded jam in the third after walking Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts to start off the inning. A two-out rally in the fifth got Severino pulled for Reed Garrett, who struck out Teoscar Hernández to end the inning. Kopech came in to face the Mets in the fifth and fired a no-nonsense inning, mostly chucking 98 mph fastballs until he brute-forced his way to three outs. His drama-free 12-pitch outing shouldn’t prevent him from being available to pitch again in Thursday’s Game 4. In the top half of the sixth, the Dodgers got their insurance runs. Edman singled off Garrett with two outs to bring up postseason masher Enrique Hernández, who did what postseason mashers do best. He slugged a two-run shot to make it a 4-0 game. The Mets did not threaten again in the final four innings, with only one runner reaching second base the rest of the way. The Dodgers closed out the game first with Ryan Brasier in the sixth, then a quick inning from Blake Treinen, and then two innings from Ben Casparius. Since things aren’t quite the same when Ohtani isn’t involved, he provided some gratuitous run scoring with a three-run moonshot in the eighth off Tylor Megill, who…
