With Jannik Sinner withdrawing from the tournament, Carlos Alcaraz has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the title at the Doha ATP 500. The world No. 1 will compete against Andrey Rublev in the semifinals, while Jakub Mensik is set to face off against Arthur Fils.
In their sixth career encounter, Alcaraz and Rublev will vie for a spot in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open final. Although Rublev is seen as the underdog in this matchup, he has demonstrated competitiveness against Alcaraz in their previous meetings, boasting a head-to-head record of 4-1 against him. Rublev’s sole victory over Alcaraz came at the 2024 Madrid Masters, where he won 4-6, 6-3, 6-2. In their two contests in 2025, Rublev managed to take a set in both matches at Wimbledon and Cincinnati, underscoring his capability to challenge the top player.
Rublev’s pathway to the semifinals included victories over Jesper de Jong, Fabian Marozsan, and a notable win against Stefanos Tsitsipas. However, his recent form against top-tier opponents raises concerns, as he holds a disappointing 2-13 record in his last 15 matches versus players ranked in the top five and a startling 4-17 record against the top ten. Alcaraz, on the other hand, faced a test against Karen Khachanov in his quarterfinal match but prevailed with a score of 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-3. This victory is expected to provide him with the adrenaline needed as he approaches the decisive stages of the tournament.
Prediction: Alcaraz in straight sets.
Turning to the other semifinal, Jakub Mensik pulled off an impressive upset by defeating second seed Jannik Sinner 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-3. This victory, coupled with Mensik’s strong performance in the tournament, positions him as a formidable contender. Despite an abdominal injury that sidelined him from a potential fourth-round matchup against Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, Mensik has started the season with an impressive 11-2 record, including a title win in Auckland.
Facing Mensik is Arthur Fils, who is experiencing a resurgence this season after recovering from a back injury that interrupted his previous campaign. Although Fils faced a difficult draw against eventual champion Alex de Minaur in the first round at Rotterdam, he showcased his abilities by making it to the quarterfinals in Montpellier and successfully defeating Kamil Majchrzak, Quentin Halys, and Jiri Lehecka in Doha. While following up a significant win can often be challenging, Fils brings a level of tenacity to the match that makes him a difficult opponent for Mensik.
Prediction: Fils in three sets.
As the semifinals approach, fans can anticipate two gripping matches that promise to deliver excitement and showcase the talents of emerging stars on the ATP Tour.
