Heading into semifinal Friday at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, the title match was expected to be an all-Russian showdown between top two seeds Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev.
Those plans got derailed in a major–and very unexpected–way.
In the first semi, Rublev was defaulted at 5-6 in the third set against Alexander Bublik after yelling in the face of a linesman. The nightcap saw Medvedev fall to Ugo Humbert 7-5, 6-3.
The result is a surprising matchup–and a first-ever head-to-head encounter–between Humbert and Bublik on Saturday evening. Although neither man was tipped to make it this far in Dubai based on ranking and seeding, their appearances in the final are not massive shocks considering their stellar form dating back to last summer.
It is true that Bublik benefitted from a bizarre semifinal outcome to advance, but at the same time he is playing the best tennis of his career in his own right. The 26-year-old Kazakh is up to No. 23 in the world and he will be a top-16 seed at the Indian Wells Masters if he lifts the winner’s trophy in Dubai. Also taking advantage of favorable conditions, Bublik preceded Rublev’s semifinal default with wins over Tomas Machac, Tallon Griekspoor, and Jiri Lehecka.
Humbert locked up a top-16 seed in Indian Wells with his upset of Medvedev. It has been an impressive resurgence for the 25-year-old Frenchman, who this week last season was ranked 89th and participating in the Pau Challenger. Now he is up to No. 18 thanks in part to titles in Metz and the end of 2023 and Marseille a couple of weeks ago. Humbert is 12-3 in 2024 following Dubai defeats of Gael Monfils, Andy Murray, Hubert Hurkacz (from three match points down), and Medvedev.
This will likely be a big-hitting match with small margins and few service breaks. In the end, Humbert is the more reliable player in pressure-packed moments and it cannot be overstated that he is 5-0 lifetime in ATP finals whereas Bublik is 4-6.
Pick: Humbert in 3
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