Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Projecting the future is always challenging and full of inevitable misses, even if I may have a personal stake in appearing competent at my job. While we have a general idea of a player’s overall future, there is always significant uncertainty in making predictions. Assuming the multiverse theory is correct, there may exist alternative realities where players like Patrick Corbin win the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2025 due to a sudden improvement in their performance. However, it is more likely that struggling rookies, such as Jackson Holliday, will view the current season as a temporary setback rather than a permanent roadblock.
The 2024 season has been a year for unexpected Rookie of the Year contenders, particularly in the American League. Out of the top 17 AL rookies based on preseason Rookie of the Year betting odds, only Colton Cowser and Wilyer Abreu emerged as strong candidates for the award. Players like Luis Gil and Austin Wells failed to live up to expectations. Below is a table featuring 15 of the 17 players who were given AL Rookie of the Year odds before the season, ranked by their preseason odds and including their actual 2024 statistics.
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The table outlines how many of the projected AL Rookie of the Year contenders fell short this season in terms of their actual performance, reflecting inaccuracies in both sportsbook predictions and FanGraphs projections. A similar analysis was conducted for 19 NL players who received preseason Rookie of the Year odds, with separate tables for hitters and pitchers. Notably, NL rookies fared better than their AL counterparts in living up to expectations.
Looking ahead, the rookies who are no longer in the awards conversation have had their future projections revised for the next five years. A comparison between their current outlook and preseason predictions reveals how their trajectories have shifted over the course of the season. The analysis includes data on 21 players to provide insight into their potential development moving forward.
Overall, certain players have seen significant changes in their projections, with some experiencing declines in expected performance due to various factors such as injuries or underperformance. Evan Carter, in particular, suffered a setback in his projections following a challenging season marred by a back injury. The varying opinions on players like Wyatt Langford demonstrate the uncertainty in forecasting young talent in baseball.
Each player’s unique circumstances present new challenges and opportunities as they navigate their careers in professional baseball. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see how these rookies continue to adapt and grow, reshaping their futures in the process.
