Expert Analysis: Top Picks, Projections, Odds and Smart Bets for the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2

The U.S. Open is annually regarded as one of the toughest tests for the world’s best golfers, and the 124th edition certainly lives up to the reputation. Pinehurst No. 2 hosts for the fourth time and the first in a decade, starting Thursday.

Adding a wrinkle to making your U.S. Open picks: Scottie Scheffler is once again a massive favorite in the latest U.S. Open odds at golf betting sites, and one of the biggest favorites in major golf history. His odds to win are at +280; Xander Schauffele is next on the board at +1000.

Rory McIlroy (+1100), Colin Morikawa (+1400) and Viktor Hovland (+1800) round out the Top 5, with LIV Tour golfers Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka each at +2000.

These odds to win the U.S. Open provide a lot of options when making our expert picks U.S. Open wagers, as hunting value is always the name of the game when wagering on sports betting apps.

U.S. Open Picks & Odds to Back

Xander Schauffele to Win (+1000 at BetMGM)

Golfers who can’t hit it straight off the tee at Pinehurst aren’t going to be successful. Contenders must do that, be prepared to work off the green due to the sloping nature of several putting areas, and they’ll need to score using the putter as well. Only one golfer ranks in the Top 26 in Drive Accuracy, Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Putting.

Certainly Scheffler is the favorite for a reason, but Xander’s odds provide far more bang for the buck when making your U.S. Open golf picks, and he can be had at +1000 at BetMGM, where the BetMGM bonus code delivers a $1,500 first-bet offer. This is one of the best U.S. Open betting promos available.

Xander Schauffele Top-10 Finish (+110 at DraftKings)

Schauffele has just one win all year – the PGA Championship. But he’s a full-time resident of the Top 10, finishing in such a spot in six of the last seven tournaments and in 77% of all tournaments this year. That includes all the majors and The Players Championship. He has the game and the mettle to do it one more time here.

We’ll make him one of our U.S. Open best bets, available at +110 to finish in the Top 10 at most online sportsbooks, including DraftKings.

Tommy Fleetwood Top-20 Finish (+140 at Caesars)

Fleetwood has hovered around 20th at a majority of his events, missing just one cut with four Top-10 finishes. The last six events, he has two Top 10s (including third at The Masters) and finished 20th, 21st and 26th in the last three. Fleetwood ranks No. 3 in Drive Accuracy and No. 10 in Scrambling, and the putting is good enough.

We’ll make him one of our U.S. Open picks to make the Top 20, but a Top-10 finish at +320 is enticing as well over at Caesars, where the Caesars Sportsbook promo code delivers a $1,000 first-bet bonus offer.

Denny McCarthy Top-20 Finish (+330 at DraftKings)

There are several golfers in the field that may not always be in contention at the typical PGA Tour stops, but whose game fits Pinehurst very well. McCarthy is one of them. He’s Top 5 in both Putting and Scrambling and a respectable 51st in Drive Accuracy.

McCarthy has made 13-of-15 cuts in 2024. We’re going big with a Top-20 call here, of which he has just two all year. Both of those came in his last six events, and he took sixth and second.

Top 30: Russell Henley Top-30 Finish (+140 at FanDuel)

Another “horse for the course,” Henley ranks high in all the key measurables for Pinehurst and he’s playing well overall, finishing 27th or better in four straight tournaments, including at the Memorial and the PGA Championship.

When he’s feeling it, he’s very competitive, with three fourth-place finishes. He should feel comfortable here. And so are we with our U.S. Open picks, taking him at FanDuel, which features one of the best sportsbook promos right now.

U.S. Open DFS Picks

For those of you not in legal sports betting states, or who just like making DFS U.S. Open picks, these are ours.

$10,000 or higher

Xander Schauffele ($11,500) ranks third on the charts behind Scheffler ($13,000!) and Rory McIlroy ($12,100). Scheffler is just too pricey, and while I expect Rory to contend, Xander is the preferred big dog for the lineups.

$8,000-$9,999

Ludvig Aberg ($9,600) has finished outside the Top 25 just one time since January. If there’s a higher-mid-range plug-and-play golfer, Aberg has been it.

Tommy Fleetwood ($8,500) is the reliable Tier 2 guy, someone who we can count on to make a cut, be in the Top 20 into the weekend and hang around on Sunday.

$7,999-Under

Jason Day ($7,500) hasn’t been consistent, but this is his type of course, and he’s missed just one cut in his last 11 tournaments.

Russell Henley ($6,900) has just one missed cut this year, is  playing Top-30 golf and has the right stats to earn high expectations, higher than this price suggests.

Denny McCarthy ($6,700) will be included in all my lineups as a big dark horse with the game to make a moment for himself. He may not win, but he should make the cut and compete for a Top-40 spot – hopefully higher.

Billy Horschel ($6,600) is good on this type of course and he’s re-finding his form, finishing outside the Top 25 just once in his last five events. That includes a win in Punta Cana, which earns him a spot in our U.S. Open expert picks for DFS.