Expert picks are back for the French Open semifinals on Friday, when Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz renew their rivalry. A three-team panel previews the highly anticipated matchup and makes its predictions.
(3) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (2) Jannik Sinner
Ricky: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz. The best current rivalry in tennis and the heir apparent to Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal. Obviously neither the rivalry nor the individual players involved stack up to Federer and Nadal (yet?), but the matchup itself is arguably more interesting–it’s certainly tougher to predict. Relative to Fedal, the surface is close to meaningless when it comes to Sinner vs. Alcaraz. Both guys are all-court players; in fact, both may be the two best in the world on all three surfaces right now.
The result could be yet another instant classic between the two–and it would be one that was far from a sure thing when the tournament began due to respective injuries (Sinner hip and Alcaraz arm). To me Alcaraz has looked more convincing from a physical standpoint throughout this fortnight, but Sinner has at least seemed healthy enough to assume that Friday’s showdown will feature two guys at 100 percent. If that is the case, Sinner has looked like the best player in the world from a pure tennis standpoint. That’s exactly what he has been dating back to last fall and that’s exactly what the rankings say he will be next week. The Italian is striking the ball better than anyone these days and he also plays with more margin for error than Alcaraz, a factor that could make the difference in the pressure moments. If it goes five I would probably give the physical edge to Alcaraz, but I think Sinner–who has won two of their last three meetings–will be able to finish the job in four. Sinner in 4: 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-5, 7-6(6).
Cheryl: Sinner vs. Alcaraz is the premier matchup in men’s tennis right now–and perhaps more importantly seems like it will be for the foreseeable future. They are an even 4-4 in the head-to-head, although Friday marks just the third slam meeting (Sinner won the first at Wimbledon two years ago and Alcaraz won the second in the best match of 2022 at the U.S. Open). Both men are huge talents, likable on court and off. Alcaraz is the flashier player of the two, a shotmaker who can hit a winner from seemingly anywhere on court. Sinner is the better ball-striker, though. He’s clever and versatile, a strategic opportunist who generates a surprising amount of power from such a lean frame. He will become No. 1 in the world on Monday for a good reason.
The surface gives a slight edge to Alcaraz, but this match is likely to come down to current form. Alcaraz has looked better in Paris, owing perhaps to the injury Sinner picked up in Madrid and the subsequent rust from taking a month off. It won’t be in straight sets, but look for Alcaraz to squeak by. Alcaraz in 5: 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-5.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): At any other time in the last few years, one would look at the draw and simply fast forward to the semifinals with a Sinner-Alcaraz matchup. However, this year–due to injuries and uncertainties–these logical predictions were hardly guaranteed. Yet here we are, with the overwhelming majority of higher-ranked players living up to their seedings and playing surface specialties as the 2024 edition of Roland Garros approaches conclusion. Ironically, this (the ninth overall matchup in the series) will be just the second meeting between these two players on clay–as well as their third meeting at a third different major.
Sinner will wake up on Monday as the world No. 1 regardless of his result the rest of the way in the tournament. That said, perhaps that element of pressure will be absent for the Italian as he attempts to reach the final. Concurrently, Alcaraz will also play his brand of fearless tennis in this semifinal. The winner already knows that his opponent in the final will not be Djokovic. Neither player has been sternly tested thus far, as each dropped just one set en route to the semis. Alcaraz will swing freely more on this day and he will be three-fourths of the way to completing the Grand Slam. Alcaraz in 4: 6-3, 2-6, 7-6(6), 6-3.
