Clubs have begun their pre-draft meetings, with some teams already about a week into theirs, while the last team to start them (Milwaukee, as far as I know) begins today. The number of people in draft meetings varies significantly from team to team. Some have more than 20 people in the room, others five or so. When any one person in the draft room learns something new, whether it’s from a scout buddy with another team or during a conversation with an agent or media person, the other folks in the room tend to also learn that thing. It is during this window that the dope starts to flow in a way that makes a more specific, full-round mock draft more feasible. Below are notes I’ve compiled across the last couple of days from conversations with scouts, front office people, and agents.
1. Cleveland Guardians
Pick: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
There hasn’t been any industry buzz about the Guardians trying like hell to cut an under-slot deal up here as a way of maximizing what they can do at picks 36, 48, and beyond. The draft doesn’t have the depth to make that strategy very enticing. Instead, this seems to be about who Cleveland considers to be the best player. Since the Combine, word of mouth has surrounded Travis Bazzana, and either Charlie Condon, JJ Wetherholt, or both. There are folks who think the telegraphed interest in Wetherholt is a smokescreen, and those who believe that Condon’s more volatile hit tool isn’t a fit with Cleveland’s typical modus operandi, but nobody ever excludes Bazzana from their mix, which I think is telling. There are those who think that once Guardians people got around Bazzana, his makeup pushed the thing over the finish line. I don’t think the Wetherholt buzz is a smokescreen. Remember that Cleveland, perhaps more than any other club, cares about a player’s underclass performance. If a guy has a great sophomore year, hits on the Cape, and then has a tough pre-draft spring, the Guards are more likely to stay on him and take him if he falls. That applies to the Chase DeLauter, Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, and Ethan Hankins picks. Wetherholt was my top player in the class coming into the spring. He had a hamstring injury this year and didn’t slug like he did as a sophomore when he returned. He’s a better defender than Bazzana by a not small amount. If you think his injury had a meaningful impact on his offensive output as I do (Wetherholt’s underlying data is barely worse than Condon’s and Bazzana’s), then he might just be the best guy. What we don’t and can’t know is what the Guardians think of Condon’s defense. If they think he can play center field, then I’m more inclined to believe they’d draft him. If they think he’s a corner infielder, then I’m more inclined to believe there’s too much chase and strikeout risk for them to take him. The same applies to Jac Caglianone, though if you told me the Guardians decided that the power upside of either of those guys was worth the risk, it would strike me as out of character for the org but not crazy from a talent standpoint.
2. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Charlie Condon, 3B/CF/1B, Georgia
I haven’t spoken with anyone who has suggested the Reds would pass on Condon if he’s here. If Condon goes first, folks with teams have mentioned Cincinnati pivoting to either Chase Burns or Jac Caglianone.
3. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Aside from some mention of Jac Caglianone, folks are mostly putting the Rockies on college pitching here, with some specifically mentioning Burns but none singling out Hagen Smith. People with other clubs think Bill Schmidt might not have the luxury of waiting very long for this pick to reach Coors, and that that will influence what they do with this pick.
4. Oakland Athletics
Pick: Braden Montgomery, RF, Texas A&M
This is where there starts to be more variability. I think the dream scenario for Oakland is for Condon or Wetherholt to go first, then for Cags and Burns to go two and three in some order, leaving Bazzana for the taking at pick four. I think they’d prefer Bazzana to Wetherholt if both were available here. Nick Kurtz has been mentioned, though I have other people telling me he’s falling. But the most frequent industry chatter has Braden Montgomery with Oakland. If there’s a trend in Oakland’s early selections, it’s less about a type of player they’re into and seemingly more about location, with a preference for guys in the Southwest or on the West Coast (Jacob Wilson, Max Muncy, Daniel Susac, Henry Bolte, Cole Miller, Denzel Clarke). Montgomery spent two years at Stanford and one at A&M.
5. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Jac Caglianone, 1B/RF, Florida
I don’t have much team-specific dope about the White Sox aside from some chatter that they’ve entertained the idea of an under-slot deal with Konnor Griffin. In this scenario, Caglianone is here and presents franchise-altering upside for an org that could really use it. The optics of taking maybe the most famous guy in the draft when it’s also justifiable based on his talent might quell some of the angst around the ugliness of their rebuild.
6. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Perhaps the most consistent rumor I’ve heard is that Kansas City likes Smith and high school shortstop Bryce Rainer.
7. St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard Westlake (CA)
In this scenario, JJ Wetherholt is just sitting there, which might be too tempting for the Cardinals to pass up. Names people have put with St. Louis include Nick Kurtz, Chase Burns (does he have a home between pick no. 3 and here?), and Rainer. Recall that Masyn Winn was also a two-way prospect with a huge arm and that has worked out. I don’t think Konnor Griffin is in play here at all.
8. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia
I watched Wetherholt go into the Angels’ suite for a meeting at the Combine and I don’t think you take that meeting if you’re Wetherholt unless there’s a chance you’re going to fall this far. This would fit the Angels’ express lane tendencies, as Wetherholt is pretty likely to move fast. Pick eight is also the first place where Cam Caminiti’s name has been mentioned, but you’d better really, really like the high school pitcher you’re taking over the hitters still available here.
9. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Rival clubs have the Pirates on college hitting here because we’re getting to the point where the current regime has to start winning, and they need to improve the lineup around all of their young pitching. Cam Smith would be good value here, but he needs a swing change to get to his power and the Pirates haven’t been able to help Ke’Bryan Hayes do that. My sources have specifically mentioned Kurtz with Pittsburgh. He’d be a clean, quick-moving fit given their big league needs and his power is already actualized.
10. Washington Nationals
Pick: Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson Prep (MS)
If we’re picking potential landing spots for Griffin, a toolsy high schooler with strikeout risk, it’s the team that recently drafted Elijah Green and Brady House. But Washington has a new scouting director (Danny Haas, formerly of the Diamondbacks), so this might depend on whether…
