As the regular season enters its final month, there are several teams hovering on the edge of the playoff picture, making the postseason races quite exciting as the 2024 campaign comes to a close. This season, our power rankings have been revamped to be more reactive to teams’ performance throughout the season. We have adopted a modified Elo rating system, known for measuring teams’ relative strength based on recent performance.
To calculate our power rankings, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coinflip playoff odds, regressing them by 50% and increasing their weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%. This approach ensures that the rankings reflect teams’ recent performances while avoiding overweighting of results during the season.
Here are the full rankings of teams, presented in a sortable table:
| Rank | Team | Record | Elo | Opponent Elo | Playoff Odds | Power Score | Δ |
|——|———–|——–|——|————–|————–|————-|—|
| 1 | Dodgers | 82-55 | 1581 | 1495 | 100.0% | 1616 | 1 |
| 2 | Diamondbacks | 77-60 | 1588 | 1499 | 90.5% | 1613 | -1 |
|… | … | … | … | … | … | … | …|
Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
– Dodgers: Finished August strongly with a series win over the Orioles and continued with a big series win over the Diamondbacks in September. Shohei Ohtani’s impressive performance is a highlight.
– Diamondbacks: Had a tough week but managed to secure a decisive victory to salvage their record. The Dodgers currently hold the upper hand in the division race.
– Astros: Have been dominant in the AL West, stabilizing their rotation and pulling away in the standings.
– Padres: Climbed back to a tie with the Diamondbacks, bolstered by Manny Machado’s offensive contributions.
– Brewers: Leading the NL Central with a comfortable division lead.
Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
– Phillies: Likely to secure the NL East division title with a substantial lead over Atlanta and an improving performance.
– Orioles: Making a push in the standings with consistent wins.
– Yankees: Looking to rebound after losing ground last week, anticipating returns of key players from the IL.
– Guardians: Battling for the AL Central lead with the Royals, recently emerging victorious in their matchups.
Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
– Twins: Struggling in the AL Central race, despite opportunities presented by other teams.
– Royals: Faced setbacks but making roster adjustments.
– Braves: Enjoyed a successful week with series wins, maintaining their position as contenders.
