As the 2024/25 NBA season gets underway, it’s fairly clear that the consensus pick for the NBA Championship remains the Boston Celtics. The 18-time champions are the clear favorites to make it to number 19 in June, and with good reason: The Celtics have brought back everyone on the roster who contributed to a dominant season last time around.
Of course, it’s not a given that the Celtics repeat. The likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers, Denver Nuggets, and New York Knicks have all been cited as potential spoilers for Boston’s quest for 19. Their odds suggest that sportsbooks feel the potential is there, too.
Yet, for some teams, we think sportsbooks might have gotten it a bit wrong. We aren’t saying they are definitely going to win the NBA Championship, but that their odds feel like they are a bit too high for teams that have genuine Playoff ambitions. Let’s look at five teams who can defy long odds, starting with a bona fide championship contender:
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are priced at +1000 in DraftKings’ current NBA odds to win it all this season. Will they? Who knows? But this is a very good team that made some smart moves in the offseason. With 56 wins, the Wolves looked decent all the way through the Playoffs. Yes, it was a disappointment against the Mavs in the Western Conference Finals, but there is an argument to be made that Minnesota got the better part of the Karl-Anthony Towns trade by landing Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. In Anthony Edwards, they have an MVP-caliber star on the rise. They are absolutely in the frame and should arguably be a fraction shorter in the odds, in our view.
Memphis Grizzlies
56 wins in 2021/22. 51 wins in 2022/23. 27 wins in 2023/24. You can see that last season was a stinker for the Grizzlies, but it was one that was characterized by an all-time bad level of injury woes. Only two players started over 40 games across the season, and key pieces like Derrick Rose, Marcus Smart, and Ja Morant managed only 36 starts between them. If the Grizzlies stay healthy, they’ll be back in the mix, and odds of +3000 to win the NBA Championship seem much too high for a team with their ceiling.
LA Lakers
The Lakers’ preferred starting five had a win percentage of 75% last season. Yes, Lebron is pushing 40 and is the oldest active player in the NBA, yet he and his teammates have enough to pull one out of the bag in the 2024/25 season. Look, it would be something of a minor miracle for the Lakers’ to defy odds of +4000 to win it all, but a run deep into the Playoffs is not beyond them.
Orlando Magic
A really exciting team at huge odds of +6500 to win an unlikely NBA Championship. Again, we don’t think they are quite ready yet, but those odds are much too long for a team that is on the up and up. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope boosts a roster already brimming with youthful potential, and we think Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero might continue their trajectory as stars of the future. While it’s probably too soon to be talking about Championships, we would rule out an Oklahoma City Thunder-like breakout season to put them on the map.
Cleveland Cavaliers
A lot of pundits believe we are all sleeping on the Cavs this year. Do we agree with them? Not wholly, but there is a certain logic to the contention. In essence, the argument is that a new head coach, with Kenny Atkinson replacing JB Bickerstaff, and the fact that several of the roster are coming into their prime, in terms of age at least. Again, odds of +6000 suggest that sportsbooks believe a Championship is out of reach, but the Cavs could be the surprise package in the Eastern Conference this season.
