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We all know the arguments. On the one hand, Manchester United are breaking nearly a century’s worth of unwanted poor performance records this season, they are embarrassing to watch and the freefall can’t be allowed to continue. The worst players are those manager Erik ten Hag championed, he seems unable to fix things and must be sacked.
The other side of the argument is just as simple. What is happening to Ten Hag in his second season is exactly what happened to Louis van Gaal in his second season, to José Mourinho in his and to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer about two seasons in as well (given he started and left halfway through a season). It can’t be the manager every time, the argument goes. It’s the toxic environment of the club, it’s the owners, it’s the players …
Team selections and deployment
Ten Hag has been nailed by fans this season for his over-reliance on Scott McTominay in midfield, but since mid-November, injuries have meant the only other options are Sofyan Amrabat, who has struggled to settle, and Kobbie Mainoo, a talented but untried 18 year old who himself missed a huge chunk of the season, and part of pre-season, with injury.
The minute Christian Eriksen returned and Mainoo had sufficient minutes for full match fitness, McTominay, despite being United’s leading goalscorer at the time, was consigned to the bench. It is hard to see what Ten Hag could have done differently where McTominay is concerned, apart from recall Donny van de Beek or promote another youngster such as Dan Gore.
It is indisputable that Ten Hag has made some bad calls. Yesterday he brought McTominay on at half-time for Mainoo and it proved to be a disaster. Both Forest’s goals came from runs into the box that should have been covered by the defensive midfielder. Mainoo probably would have been in the right position. McTominay was not.
But hindsight is a wonderful thing. At half time in a stale 0-0 when Forest had hadly forced a save out of Andre Onana, Ten Hag could have been forgiven for thinking Mainoo protecting the defence was somewhat overkill. Forest were offering so little, but United needed to create more chances themselves. He may have reasoned that McTominay has been a defensive mid at United for nearly six years and that even he can do the basics there, but he can also nick a goal. He can also offer height on corners and set pieces and make late runs into the box.
And if that version of McTominay had turned up, nobody would be lambasting the manager for the sub. The problem is, the worst version of McTominay turned up. He did not do the basics. Ten Hag rolled the dice and lost. But to say it was a bad decision is easy in retrospect.
Ten Hag has also been roundly criticised for his preferential treatment of winger Antony. Again, the Brazilian started yesterday and again, he was appalling. But Antony would have been on the bench had Rasmus Hojlund not fallen sick. Antony would have been on the bench had Anthony Martial not been sick. Antony could well have been on the bench had Jadon Sancho not decided to jeopardise his own career. Antony could well have been on the bench had Amad Diallo been match fit.
The fact is, when it comes to Antony, the only player that he has been preferred to, of late at least, is Facu Pellistri. Ten Hag may have his reasons for that, we do not know what he sees in training.
Injuries
The Athletic’s Carl Anka says that “Ten Hag will cite injuries decimating his team’s ability to play to their best, but it is a mitigation that can only go so far in a 2023-24 season where every Premier League club has suffered an increase in injuries.” This is surely wholly unfair. How many other clubs’ injuries have seen them have to start with 10 different centre back partnerships this season? And with a new goalkeeper, who will always take time to build up an understanding with his defence?
We saw Liverpool fall apart when Virgil van Dijk was injured last season. Just one player. We have seen City come off the rails when first Rodri and now Erling Haaland joined Kevin de Bruyne on the treatment table. Ten Hag has lost the whole spine of last season for much of this – notably Lisandro Martinez, Luke Shaw, Casemiro and Christian Eriksen, but so many others besides.
We can blame Ten Hag and say it is his tough training methods that has led to all these injuries, but this is speculation and most likely unfair.
Recruitment
Some fans argue that Ten Hag should be sacked for his failure in the transfer market alone. His signings, they say, have been a massive failure. The Telegraph’s Ian Whittle says “Antony is the £85m dud that will define Erik ten Hag’s tenure.” And of course it is an open secret that the Dutchman wanted the player on his team. But he surely did not expect the totally inept John Murtough (the supposed director of football at United) to spend £85 million to get him. If Murtough had paid a sensible amount – even £40 million, nobody would have had such high expectations of the Brazilian, and nobody would be nailing Ten Hag for wanting him.
The Athletic’s Laurie Whitwell points out that United had valued the player at just £25 million and that “Ten Hag undoubtedly wanted to sign Antony, but sanctioning the outlay came from above.”
The same is true of Rasmus Hojlund. It was Murtough, not Ten Hag, who forked out £72 million for a player who had been told he could leave Atalanta for £50 million. This left no money for Ten Hag’s requested second striker, a more experienced player such as Mehdi Taremi of FC Porto. Indeed, Ten Hag reportedly wanted Harry Kane or Victor Osimhen initially and ended up with little more than an academy prospect in Hojlund. Is this his fault?
As for his other signings, Lisandro looked to be United’s best defender since Nemanja Vidic before his injury. Ten Hag is being slated for signing Casemiro when his legs have gone, but nobody was saying that this time last year when he was being heralded as the best midfielder in the world. Again, hindsight is a fine thing, but nobody expected the Brazilian to age so quickly – if indeed that is what has happened.
Andre Onana has had a dodgy start to his Old Trafford career but that was true of the likes of David de Gea and even the great Peter Schmeichel. Was Ten Hag wrong in choosing him to replace the woeful De Gea? He was shortlisted for the Ballon d’Or last season and none of us were objecting when he was selected. Hindsight.
Likewise, we were all excited to land Sofyan Amrabat and Mason Mount could yet still be an inspired signing, we do not know yet because of his injuries.
Ten Hag was also desperate to sign Bayer Leverkusen’s Jeremie Frimpong but the club pulled the plug and left him with the inept pair of Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Diogo Dalot. Murtough’s mind-blowingly outrageous overspending – and inability to sell Harry Maguire – left the Dutchman unable to sign the centre back he so desperately wanted, too.
And let us not forget, going back to McTominay, that Ten Hag tried to sell him, but Murtough messed up those negotiations as well, holding out for a ridiculous sum that the otherwise keen West Ham refused to pay.
On top of all this, there is there is the biggest question of all when it comes to recruitment: why was Ten Hag calling the shots in the first place and should he be blamed for decisions that should have come from a director of football?
Ten Hag himself virtually begged for a DoF in May this year at a presser. Laurie Whitwell again:
“It was put to him that the most important person at a club should be the manager, just like Sir Alex Ferguson before him at United and Pep Guardiola now at neighbours Manchester City. ‘I don’t know if that is true,’ Ten Hag said. ‘About City, (Txiki) Begiristain does a very…’
There was an interjection: ‘That club is built for Pep Guardiola.’
Ten Hag replied: ‘Yes but I think still, don’t underestimate the role of Begiristain.’”
Whitwell noted that “his repeated insistence on recognising the work of Begiristain, City’s director of football, felt telling.”
Other mitigating factors
It also seems fair just to mention that the fiasco over the club’s takeover must have made life difficult for the manager. There is uncertainty among staff and his CEO, Richard Arnold, has left the club.
The Glazers’ refusal to invest money in the club has meant that United are now nearly at the limits of financial fair play rules, where they could have had significantly more. This has led to the Wout Weghorst-type loan deals of last season and the unlikelihood that the Dutchman can strengthen his squad this January, despite there being an obvious, desperate and urgent need.
Some have contacted me re why Manchester United FFP issues given PL limit is £105m loss over 3 years. That’s not quite the case, the limit is £15m PLUS up to £90m in equity investment by owners. The Glazer family have only put in £0m in those 3 years so allowable loss still £15m pic.twitter.com/oACcmGjo2G
— Kieran Maguire (@KieranMaguire) July 4, 2023
Ten Hag was also left high and dry by Richard Arnold’s botched handling of the Mason Greenwood saga. The manager would have been planning on integrating him into the side and the decision to loan him out came very late in the day. He then also had off-field issues with two other right wingers, Antony and Jadon Sancho, land one on top of another.
And finally, it was hard for anyone to foresee Marcus Rashford’s crash from his 30-goal world beating form of 2022-23 to his shocking form this term. Unless a manager is expected to have psychic powers, it is hard to see how Ten Hag can be held responsible for that.
None of these are excuses, they are simply facts.
Nobody really knows whether or not Erik ten Hag is the right man for the job at United. But what we do know is that many, if not all of the problems he faces were there before he joined and will be there after he has left. So in many ways, sacking him is not the answer right now. Allow him, and INEOS, time to perform the “open heart surgery” that interim manager Ralf Rangnick called it, and then judge him.
Graham Potter looked like an amazing manager at Brighton but clueless at Chelsea. Roberto de Zerbi looks like an amazing manager at Brighton now, but is this the opposite effect to United? A club built with an excellent structure, with a great sporting director (Dan Ashworth, now at Newcastle) making the job easy for the manager? Would De Zerbi, or anyone else, prosper in the vipers’ nest and improve things at United?
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