Welcome back, Rafa. You have been given a workable 2024 Indian Wells draw. Not easy, mind you, but manageable. As the 22-time Grand Slam champion attempts another comeback from injury, every potential opponent in Rafael Nadal’s section has question marks of his own. It’s a bit of luck. Now let’s see what Nadal makes of it.
On the women’s side, here’s the story: 2-time Australian Open champion and world number two Aryna Sabalenka has arguably the toughest draw of the top four seeds. After running the table with nary a set dropped in Oz, this path looks more dicey for her.
On both sides, for one peaceful, brilliant moment in time, all the major stars are here and reasonably healthy. They are ready to draw back their bows for the battle at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open.
Now to the preview and analysis, section by section.
2024 Indian Wells Draw Preview: Djokovic Quarter
The world number one, GOAT and 24-time Grand Slam Champion Novak Djokovic has an opportunity here. This Indian Wells draw presents a shot for him to rebound from what he called “one of the worst Grand Slam matches I’ve ever played” in his Australian Open semifinal loss to Jannik Sinner. Back in America, Djokovic will be motivated.
As a five time Indian Wells champion, Nole’s fans needn’t worry about his comfort with the conditions here in the Cali desert. Djokovic has amassed a stunning record of 50-9 at the Tennis Garden. Where doesn’t he stun? After a bye and a first round match against Aleks Vucic, the only interesting floaters in Novak’s section include Tommy Paul, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Hubert Hurkacz at the bottom of the quarter. Just to give you an idea, though, Novak’s record against Hubie is 7-0. Kk. Next!
Medvedev (+ Nadal) Quarter
Here’s the fascinating area of the Indian Wells draw. The 4-seed Daniil Medvedev sits at the top– and Meddy did make the final last year before losing to Carlos Alcaraz. So he can certainly contend. But look at the bottom. Nadal and Milos Raonic meet in a matchup of players with protected rankings. Rafa holds an 8-2 career record against the Canadian, though Milos did beat him at Indian Wells in 2015. It just appears that Rafa is in steadier shape, if the Netflix Slam exhibition is any indication. Raonic has had to retire from two of his four matches played this year.
The winner of that match faces Holger Rune, who has struggled to regain his freshman form. Nadal could take advantage of the uncertainty. The next-highest seed nearby is Lorenzo Musetti, and Rafa likes him some one-handed backhand opponents. So it’s interestingly workable. Should be fun to see what the 37-year-old dad has in the tank. Former champion Taylor Fritz and Grigor Dimitrov also reside in this quarter.
2024 Indian Wells Draw Preview: Sinner Quarter
Looking at the bottom half, Sinner and Andrey Rublev bookend a quarter that features some major young talent in Jiri Lehecka, Ben Shelton and wild card Jacub Mensik. In addition, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Francis Tiafoe lurk in this section of the draw.
If Andy Murray can beat a qualifier he’ll take on Rublev. It’s a match of guys who sometimes yell at people and themselves. In all seriousness, it appears this could be Murray’s last go-round at the Tennis Garden. Let’s please enjoy.
One might think Tsitsipas would play well on this surface because it’s a slower hard court. But the ball flies in the desert. The dry air causes topspin shots to move quickly out of strike zones. That’s a problem for a one-handed backhand. Stef’s career record here is a paltry 5-5. (Dimitrov also does not play well here typically. It’s amazing Roger Federer won this title five times.)
Alcaraz Quarter
Finally, the most compelling quarter at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open features Alcaraz. The Spaniard managed to top Nadal in the Netflix exho, but questions about his ankle sprain remain. Sitting at the other end is Alexander Zverev, who has a few early exits here. Heat can sometimes be a factor for the German. The guy I like in this quarter is Alex De Minaur. Coming off a win in Mexico, Speed Demon is off to a brilliant start in 2024. At 5-5, he doesn’t have a great record at Indian Wells, but he’s playing too well to ignore.
Players to watch:
QF: Djokovic, Medvedev, Sinner, De Minaur
SF: Djokovic, Sinner
F: Djokovic
*****
2024 Indian Wells Draw Preview: Swiatek Quarter
World number one Iga Swiatek received a favorable draw this year at Indian Wells. It’s funny how certain pairs of players can just keep drawing each other over and over. If Danielle Collins advances past a qualifier in round 1, she’ll get Swiatek again. Iga has a 5-1 record against Danielle, who has taken Swiatek to 3 sets in two previous meetings. It’s typically either a great, close match or a complete blowout. Elsewhere, Swiatek could play Katie Boulter, who just won in San Diego. I suspect she’s mentally and physically drained from that. The next-highest seed in this quarter is Ons Jabeur, who has been struggling badly since the loss at Wimbledon.
Rybakina Quarter
The BNP Paribas Open defending champion Elena Rybakina has had some bad luck and lost some close matches, but she plays well here. This could be a chance for her to reclaim momentum. She might face former IW champ Paula Badosa in round 2, who has been awarded a wild card. A player to watch in his area of the draw is the emerging Anna Kalinskaya, who has earned a seed and a bye. And finally, I always like how Beatriz Haddad Maia plays in these conditions. Interesting section.
Gauff Quarter
This is a real opportunity for 2023 US Open Champion Coco Gauff because the draw’s not half bad for her. She’ll be a crowd favorite. Many of the women in this section are consistency-type players. With an improved forehand, Gauff should be able to overpower them using her strong backhand and big serve.
Sabalenka Quarter
Finally, the aforementioned tough draw for Sabalenka. American Jessica Pegula sits on the opposite side of the quarter, and Jess is a tough out. Near Aryna, wild card Emma Raducanu has something to prove. Further up, look out for American Emma Navarro and the always-gritty Elina Svitolina. It’s a quarter filled with fighters. If she doesn’t play with some serious discipline, Sabalenka will see her go-for-broke forehand flying out too often.
Players to Watch:
QF: Swiatek, Rybakina, Gauff, Pegula
SF: Swiatek, Gauff
F: Swiatek
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