Familiar foes Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev will add a ninth chapter to their rivalry when they meet again in the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open on Thursday.
Zverev leads the head-to-head series 5-3 after beating Alcaraz 6-1, 6-3, 6-7(2), 6-4 at this year’s Australian Open. The German also prevailed 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4 at the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals, so he has won two in a row since being sapped of energy in a U.S. Open loss to Alcaraz last summer (Zverev had won a five-set marathon against Jannik Sinner two nights earlier). Aside from that easily explained result in New York, the Spaniard has never defeated Zverev on a hard court.
Another tough task likely awaits Alcaraz at the Indian Wells Masters, because Zverev is looking good this fortnight and he loves these conditions. The world No. 6 has advanced so far with victories over Christopher O’Connell, Tallon Griekspoor, and a red-hot Alex de Minaur. He is now 14-4 this season with a United Cup title and a semifinal showing at the Aussie Open.
Alcaraz, though, cannot be discounted. The second seed, who has not captured a title since Wimbledon and sustained an ankle injury in Rio de Janeiro, appears to be rounding back into form just in time for this showdown. He dropped his opening set in Indian Wells to Matteo Arnaldi but dominated his next six sets (against Arnaldi, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Fabian Marozsan) 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, and 6-3.
Of course, Zverev represents a steep step up in competition. The 26-year-old is playing great in the desert and he is obviously quite confident in this particular matchup, so don’t be surprised if he takes down Alcaraz for a sixth time on Thursday.
Pick: Zverev in 3
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