Holger Rune was all but out of the BNP Paribas Open on Wednesday, but he lives to see another day. Rune was down match point serving at 4-5 in the second set against Taylor Fritz before storming back for a 2-6, 7-6(2), 6-3 victory.
It was a tough match for a player who had previously enjoyed the most routine fortnight of anyone in Indian Wells. The 20-year-old earned a first-round bye as the No. 7 seed and then got a walkover from Milos Raonic before beating Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets to reach the last 16.
Up next for Rune in the quarterfinals on Thursday night is Medvedev, who is once again playing well in the desert after he finished runner-up in 2023. The fourth-ranked Russian has advanced with victories over Roberto Carballes Baena, Sebastian Korda, and Grigor Dimitrov while dropping just one set to Korda in the process.
Rune’s level in the second-set tiebreaker and third set against Fritz is good enough to beat Medvedev. However, such performances have mostly been few and far between for the Dane in 2024 and it will not be easy to sustain it–especially not against an opponent of Medvedev’s defensive caliber.
The head-to-head series is tied at 1-1; they split a pair of clay-court encounters last spring, with Rune winning 6-3, 6-4 in Monte-Carlo before Medvedev got revenge via a 7-5, 7-5 decision in Rome.
This proverbial rubber match should be a good one, but Medvedev is the more reliable, consistent player and has clearly learned how to adjust to somewhat unfavorable conditions at the Indian Wells Masters.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
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