In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing mediocre production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.
When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is considered fair game. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it.
For this series, I’ll go around the diamond, pointing out the most egregious examples of potential Killers at each position among contenders, which I’ll define as teams that are above .500 or have Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%. That definition covers 20 teams, down from 22 last year. I’ll include the rest-of-season projections from our Depth Charts, and while I may mention potential trade targets, I’m less focused on these teams’ solutions than I am the problems, because hey, human nature. This first installment will cover first basemen. All statistics within this piece are through July 11 unless otherwise noted.
2024 Replacement-Level Killers: First Base
| Team | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | Bat | BsR | Fld | WAR | ROS WAR | Tot WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | .208 | .282 | .323 | 74 | -11.0 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -1.3 | 0.4 | -0.9 |
| Brewers | .216 | .290 | .401 | 94 | -2.5 | -2.4 | -1.7 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Yankees | .230 | .294 | .373 | 91 | -4.1 | -3.4 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Mariners | .222 | .312 | .384 | 93 | -3.0 | -1.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Red Sox | .237 | .317 | .377 | 104 | 1.7 | -2.2 | -1.7 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Cardinals | .237 | .298 | .380 | 94 | -2.7 | 0.8 | -1.5 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Braves | .234 | .313 | .415 | 103 | 1.6 | -2.9 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
Astros After a dreadful 2023 season, José Abreu showed some life in the postseason, but when he dug himself another deep hole early this year, the 37-year-old former MVP swallowed his pride and accepted an optional minor league assignment on May 1. A month later he returned, but the Astros gave him just 13 games before cutting him loose with a cringeworthy .124/.167/.195 (1 wRC+) line and -1.5 WAR. Lefty-swinging Jon Singleton has served as the regular in Abreu’s absence, but his .241/.335/.358 (102 wRC+) isn’t going to cut it if the Astros are to capitalize on their turnaround. They started the year just 12-24, and as of June 18 were still just 33-40, 10 games out of first in the AL West. Since then, they’ve gone 16-4, closing to within two games of the first-place Mariners; their Playoff Odds have rocketed from 29.3% to 59.5% in that span. Joey Loperfido, a 45-FV prospect who ranked third on the Astros’ Top Prospects list as a center fielder, is probably the leading in-house alternative. Loperfido, a 25-year-old lefty batter, played first base regularly as a freshman at Duke in 2018 and has kept the position in the mix during his time in the minors, notching 63 games there. He’s bounced up and down between Triple-A and the majors since April 30, hitting .284/.337/.444 (121 wRC+) in 90 plate appearances at the big league level. He was expected to chip in at first base, but has played just three innings there so far; lately he’s been sharing right field duties in the absence of Kyle Tucker. When Tucker returns (hopefully just after the All-Star break), Loperfido could get a real look at first. Beyond that, the Marlins’ Josh Bell is seemingly always available at this time of year, but he’d have to be considered a fallback. According to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, Astros general manager Dana Brown is known to have discussed Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Andrew Vaughn, and Christian Walker with their respective teams; the three besides Vaughn probably top the wish lists of every team here, but it’s not clear yet whether their teams are committed to selling.
Brewers Few teams are as committed to a bit as the Brewers are to placing first basemen on the annual Killers lists; this is their fifth straight season of doing so. With Rowdy Tellez having taken his fringe performances to Pittsburgh (where the Pirates’ 0.7 WAR barely kept them off this list), righty Rhys Hoskins (.218/.314/.419/, 107 wRC+, 0.0 WAR) and lefty Jake Bauers (.220/.321/.396, 104 wRC+, 0.4 WAR) have done most of the damage here. Bauers, who also plays the outfield corners, has managed just a 77 wRC+ in his time at first, which included regular play when a right hamstring injury sidelined Hoskins in the second half of May; since returning, Hoskins hasn’t been much better (.200/.282/.357, 79 wRC+). Given their five-game lead in the NL Central and their ongoing pitching needs even after trading for Aaron Civale, I’m guessing the Brewers will probably wait for Hoskins — who missed last year with a torn left ACL but who is also the owner of a career 124 wRC+, as well as an $18 million player option for next season — to rebound. They could also give 23-year-old Tyler Black, a lefty-swinging 40-FV prospect who placed 10th on their Top Prospects list this spring, a longer look; he’s hit .235/.316/.294 (78 wRC+) in 38 PA with the Brewers and .286/.389/.481 (126 wRC+) in 280 PA at Triple-A Nashville.
Yankees On the heels of a season wrecked by post-concussion symptoms, Anthony Rizzo was hitting just .223/.289/.341 (82 wRC+) before fracturing the radial neck of his right arm on June 16. The 34-year-old first baseman avoided surgery but landed on the 60-day injured list, meaning he won’t be eligible to return until August 16. Since Rizzo went down, 25-year-old lefty-swinging Ben Rice has done a good job filling in, batting .254/.333/.522 (138 wRC+) with five homers in 78 PA. A converted catcher whose inability to stop the running game dimmed his future behind the plate, he’s taken to his new position defensively as well. If he could sustain what he’s doing, problem solved, but if he can’t, the Yankees — who are in a 6-17 tailspin and aren’t getting a 100 wRC+ from any regulars besides Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and the injured Giancarlo Stanton, can’t afford to risk Rizzo picking up where he left off given his .235/.312/.363 in 712 PA over the past two seasons. An outfielder-first baseman type such as the Giants’ LaMonte Wade Jr. (who has another year of club control) or the Diamondbacks’ Joc Pederson (a pending free agent) would be an ideal addition, if their respective teams slip further in the standings, but with needs elsewhere in the infield and on the pitching staff, there’s no guarantee such a move is a priority for GM Brian Cashman.
Mariners Incumbent Ty France has produced diminishing returns in each of the past three seasons, with his wRC+ and WAR declining from the previous year. Thus far he’s hitting .232/.322/.363 (103 wRC+) with 0.1 WAR. While he’s hitting the ball harder than last year, he’s pulling it less often, and so his xwOBA has dropped from .342 to .320. He’s being eaten alive by four-seam fastballs, hitting .200 and slugging .263 while whiffing on 22.1% of his swings against them, and his overall strikeout rate has spiked from 17.6% to 24.5%. His defense (-4 DRS, -3 FRV, -0.9 UZR) is nothing to write home about…
