On Tuesday afternoon, Josh Hader of the Houston Astros took the mound at the start of the ninth inning against the Detroit Tigers in the first game of their three-game Wild Card series. At this point, the Astros were losing 3-0. Hader allowed a double to Riley Greene but retired the next three batters without giving up any runs. However, the Astros ultimately lost the game.
This use of Hader in a non-save situation was uncharacteristic for a closer and raised questions among fans and broadcasters. The next day, Hader was called into a more high-pressure situation with the game tied and runners on base. Unfortunately, Hader gave up a bases-clearing double, leading to a 5-2 victory for the Tigers and the end of the Astros’ season.
The decision to use Hader in the low-leverage situation of the first game was analyzed to determine if it was a strategic move. By calculating win probability added (WPA), it was estimated that Hader’s appearance in the first game increased the Astros’ chances of winning by only around 0.7%. However, the potential cost of using Hader in this situation was also considered.
Based on past statistics, it was found that Hader’s effectiveness decreases when pitching on consecutive days. This decreased effectiveness was estimated to cost the team around 1.5% of a win on average. Taking into account the likelihood of Hader being used in the following game, it was determined that the decision to use him in the first game may not have been the most strategic choice.
Overall, the analysis highlighted the complex factors involved in managing a bullpen during postseason play and the importance of considering both short-term and long-term consequences when making pitching decisions.
