There were some significant changes in the AL playoff standings with the Red Sox and Astros making moves up the rankings, while the NL picture remains chaotic. This season, new power rankings have been introduced. The previous model did not account for the fluctuations in a team’s performance throughout the season, giving too much weight to a team’s overall performance without considering recent changes. To address this, a modified Elo rating system has been implemented to build the power rankings model. Elo is a responsive rating system that reflects teams’ relative strength based on recent performances. By weighing each team’s Elo rank with playoff odds, the rankings remain dynamic and responsive to hot streaks and slumps. Below are the full rankings in a sortable table:
Rank Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score Δ
1 Yankees 52-28 1595 1514 99.7% 1613 0
2 Phillies 51-26 1581 1481 99.9% 1600 1
3 Orioles 49-28 1578 1500 97.6% 1595 -1
4 Guardians 49-26 1573 1483 91.6% 1592 2
5 Dodgers 48-31 1558 1487 99.3% 1578 -1
6 Braves 43-32 1555 1499 95.4% 1565 3
7 Mariners 45-35 1539 1494 80.1% 1552 -2
8 Brewers 45-33 1527 1495 79.8% 1543 -1
9 Red Sox 42-36 1545 1509 37.1% 1539 2
10 Twins 43-35 1525 1485 73.9% 1527 -2
11 Astros 38-40 1534 1502 43.6% 1514 5
12 Cardinals 39-37 1518 1490 43.7% 1513 0
13 Mets 37-39 1517 1515 34.1% 1502 1
14 Padres 41-41 1509 1509 50.1% 1499 4
15 Royals 42-37 1488 1502 29.3% 1485 -5
16 Diamondbacks 38-40 1497 1493 29.7% 1484 4
17 Rays 38-40 1502 1496 16.9% 1482 5
18 Nationals 38-39 1488 1502 3.5% 1479 -1
19 Rangers 37-40 1491 1503 17.6% 1474 5
20 Pirates 37-40 1483 1494 11.6% 1470 1
21 Reds 36-41 1484 1500 14.2% 1467 -2
22 Giants 36-42 1467 1496 18.1% 1451 -7
23 Blue Jays 35-42 1472 1508 5.0% 1450 -10
24 Cubs 37-41 1463 1498 20.7% 1449 1
25 Tigers 36-41 1454 1489 7.3% 1436 -2
26 Angels 30-46 1457 1517 0.2% 1434 0
27 Marlins 27-50 1442 1513 0.0% 1420 0
28 Rockies 27-51 1403 1507 0.0% 1385 0
29 Athletics 29-51 1398 1506 0.0% 1380 0
30 White Sox 21-58 1356 1510 0.0% 1343 0
Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Yankees 52-28 1595 1514 99.7% 1613
Phillies 51-26 1581 1481 99.9% 1600
Orioles 49-28 1578 1500 97.6% 1595
The Orioles made a statement by winning a series against the Yankees last week, but followed it up with a disappointing sweep against the Astros. The Yankees faced challenges after losing Giancarlo Stanton to injury, putting pressure on their lineup. The Phillies have been performing well, with strong pitching and offensive contributions from Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Guardians 49-26 1573 1483 91.6% 1592
Dodgers 48-31 1558 1487 99.3% 1578
Braves 43-32 1555 1499 95.4% 1565
Mariners 45-35 1539 1494 80.1% 1552
Brewers 45-33 1527 1495 79.8% 1543
The Guardians are on a hot streak, overtaking the Yankees for the best record in the AL. The Dodgers are thriving behind Shohei Ohtani’s performance. The Braves have cut their deficit in the NL East and are showing strength in their pitching staff. The Mariners face challenges ahead against AL Wild Card contenders.
Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record Elo Opponent Elo Playoff Odds Power Score
Red Sox 42-36 1545 1509 37.1% 1539
Twins 43-35 1525 1485 73.9% 1527
Astros 38-40 1534 1502 43.6% 1514
Cardinals 39-37 1518 1490 43.7% 1513
Mets 37-39 1517 1515 34.1% 1502
The Red Sox have surged ahead in the standings with recent victories. The Astros are showing signs of improvement despite injuries to key players. The Cardinals and Mets are making progress in the NL Wild Card race. Each team in this tier has strengths that make them solid contenders in their respective divisions.
