Khalil Herbert Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

There’s always something happening in the NFL. Even without games, fantasy football values are shuffling.

Chicago Bears RB Khalil Herbert had a pretty chaotic 2023 season that saw him go from starter to injured to third-string back to starter. With an uncertain future, where does Herbert’s dynasty value stand heading into the offseason?

Khalil Herbert’s Dynasty Outlook

Herbert’s 2023 season was quite the wild ride. It all started when he took a screen pass in the preseason 56 yards to the house. That singular play bumped his redraft ADP up by two full rounds. There was optimism surrounding the Bears’ offense, and Herbert was poised to be the lead back.

Unfortunately, the season did not start that well for Herbert. He scored below 8.0 fantasy points in three of his first five games, despite clearly being the lead back, averaging about a 60% snap share over the first five weeks of the season.

While it was clear Herbert wasn’t going to be this major value, he was on track to be startable in fantasy. Then, in Week 5, Herbert hurt his ankle, costing him five games.

During his absence, D’Onta Foreman excelled. When Herbert returned in Week 11, he played behind Foreman but still amassed 16 carries. However, he only managed 35 yards. That performance resulted in him being relegated to the RB3 behind Foreman and Roschon Johnson for the next three weeks.

From Weeks 12-15 (three total games), Herbert carried the ball six, three, and six times, playing no more than 23% of the snaps in any individual game.

Then, in Week 16, Foreman missed the game due to an injury of his own. The Bears turned back to Herbert as their clear lead guy, and he wound up being a league winner, scoring 19.1 and 20.9 fantasy points, respectively, in Weeks 16 and 17.

I took the time to walk through the roller-coaster ride that was Herbert’s 2023 season to make two important points.

1) Herbert is talented enough to be an RB2 in fantasy if given volume in the right circumstances.
2) The Bears have no allegiance to Herbert — or any of their running backs.

It’s too early to make any predictions as to what the Bears might do with their backfield in 2024. We know Johnson will be there, but beyond that, it’s up in the air.

Foreman was on a one-year deal and is currently a free agent. Herbert, meanwhile, is entering the final year of his rookie deal, and I highly doubt the Bears extend him.

Herbert remains the presumptive 2024 starter, but the Bears could easily sign or draft another back. That creates a challenge for fantasy managers with Herbert on their dynasty rosters.

Herbert’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Herbert land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Herbert lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

Jason Katz’s Top 25 RB Rankings

1) Breece Hall | NYJ
2) Bijan Robinson | ATL
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) De’Von Achane | MIA
8) Saquon Barkley | NYG
9) Rachaad White | TB
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC
11) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
12) Josh Jacobs | LV
13) Kyren Williams | LAR
14) James Cook | BUF
15) D’Andre Swift | PHI
16) Javonte Williams | DEN
17) Tony Pollard | DAL
18) Tyjae Spears | TEN
19) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
20) Joe Mixon | CIN
21) Alvin Kamara | NO
22) David Montgomery | DET
23) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
24) Derrick Henry | TEN
25) Austin Ekeler | LAC

Should You Trade Herbert in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Herbert? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!

Draft capital shouldn’t matter when a player has been in the league for three years, but last year was the first season in which Herbert was treated as the feature back. He’s still a former sixth-round pick on his rookie deal. Nothing is guaranteed to him.

This is a situation where fantasy managers must balance what a player does on the field against how NFL teams historically operate.

Last season, Herbert was pretty good! He averaged 4.9 yards per touch (19th in the league) and had a 20.4% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate (21st in the league). With 5.3% of his rushes going for at least 15 yards, Herbert was 12th in that category.

Herbert also displayed proficiency as a receiver. His 9.5% target share, while nothing overly exciting, was a significant bump up from 4.4% the year before. There’s clearly a useful player here.

With that said, unless Herbert really shines in 2024, I have a difficult time envisioning whichever team gives him a second contract installing him as their lead back. That’s more of a 2025 problem, but dynasty managers need to take that into account.

MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Strategies That Can Win Your League

Herbert is unlikely to garner a significant return in a trade, but he’s probably worth moving for a second-round rookie pick unless you really need the RB depth.

I’m not optimistic about Herbert’s long-term value. Therefore, trading him is a prudent move, if you can get the right deal.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.