MacKenzie Dominates with Strikeouts: K/9 at 10+

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

It’s easy to take a totally nihilistic view of pitching prospects in general. You’ll get your hopes up over a 13-strikeout start at the College World Series, twiddle your thumbs as innings limits and service time shenanigans delay the path to the majors by two years, and be left scratching your head when the pitcher’s UCL gives out anyway, just two months after his big league debut.

Next thing you know, you’re watching a 29-year-old, whose coming was once as breathlessly anticipated as the Messiah’s, toodle around for 140 lackluster innings a year. Such a viewpoint would be facile, the type of cynicism that, to quote the author Joe Klein, “passes for insight among the mediocre.” But baseball fans come by their pessimism honestly; as anyone who’s read a Nick Hornby novel knows, nothing fosters obnoxious nihilism like repeated heartbreak.

MacKenzie Gore was the high schooler with the big leg kick and unreal velocity for a lefty. Then he was arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball. Then he was trade fodder — but still a key component of the deal that brought Juan Soto from Washington to San Diego. And in 2023, Gore was fine. He made 27 starts, threw 136 1/3 innings, and posted a 4.42 ERA. Did he look like a future Cy Young winner? No. Was this worth giving up on Soto and risking sending the franchise into a tailspin? No. But he was competent in a big league rotation, and not all pitching prospects even achieve that.

In 2024, however, Gore is different. He’s striking out 28.7% of opponents and walking just 7.4%, both career bests. And despite allowing a BABIP of .400, his ERA is down to 3.12. He’s had at least one cupcake on his schedule in five starts, but he’s beaten the Phillies and held the Dodgers to one run over six innings in a losing effort. Is this the ace Nationals fans have been waiting for?

Before the season, Dan Szymborski predicted that Gore would have more success in 2024 than he did last year, just based on the proposition that Gore — who was ridiculously homer-prone in 2023 — would be able to keep the ball in the yard this year. And it’s been only five starts, but Gore’s HR/FB% has dropped from 18.2%, which was seventh in the league among pitchers with at least 100 innings last year, to 8.3%, which is a couple points under league average. Even taking that into account, Gore has definitely learned one or two new tricks.

The first is that he’s throwing ridiculously hard. Gore’s fastball is now averaging 96.8 mph, which makes him the hardest-throwing left-handed starter in the league. It’s also the fifth-biggest velocity gain in the league, according to Baseball Savant, and two of the four pitchers ahead of him on the list are pitchers who moved from the rotation to the bullpen.

Gore’s slider, previously an upper-80s offering, is now averaging 91.5 mph and topping out at 94. That’s the hardest average slider velocity in the league, full stop. And because Gore, then as now, is among the league leaders in release extension, these pitches get on top of hitters in a hurry.

But you knew Gore threw hard already; a couple paragraphs ago, I described him as “the high schooler with the big leg kick and unreal velocity.” So what of the second thing?

There are two elements of Gore’s game that have evolved mechanically. The first is that on the whole, he’s dropped his release point slightly, though it’s a matter of about one inch down and two and a half inches over. More noticeable is what he’s doing with runners on base.

This is going to come as a shock to you, I know, but pitching better with runners on has a massive impact on overall results, because a hit with the bases empty usually leads to nothing while a hit with a runner on base frequently leads to a run. Last year, 106 pitchers faced at least 190 batters with a runner on base; Gore was 88th in opponent wOBA and allowed home runs on more than a quarter of his fly balls, which was the third-worst rate in the league.

Previously, Gore had a very quiet motion with men on base, starting with his glove high and with more of a slide step than a real leg kick. Now — actually dating back to the final few starts of last season — Gore is using a more conventional stretch motion, starting with his hands at his belt and bringing them up before dropping them again.

Maybe I’m imagining things because I know the results are better, but it does look like he’s better balanced and getting a better leg drive with the latter windup. Either way, his numbers with runners on base look like they belong to a different guy.

Gore With Runners On

Apart from his harder fastball and slider, the other major difference in Gore’s game is a new changeup. He’s lost about a mile an hour of velocity and 200 rpm of spin, and there’s a very subtle change to the pitch’s movement axis; it’s now dropping closer to vertical instead of drawing to the arm side. The changeup as such has not had good results; three of the nine changeups put in play have gone for hits, including one of the two homers Gore’s allowed this season. But after using the changeup mostly as a show-me pitch in 2023, Gore is now throwing it about 15% of the time to righties, and it’s his best swing-and-miss pitch so far on a percentage basis.

Most of all, his numbers against right-handed hitters have also improved markedly.

Gore Takes On Righties, Has More Success Than in 2000

Perhaps Gore’s changeup is filling in as part of a whole because none of his pitches have radical east-west movement. Nevertheless, he seems to be locating those pitches better. He’s walking fewer batters, getting more whiffs in the zone, and pitching more in the shadow zone while getting better results there.

Gore in the Shadow Zone

SOURCE: Baseball Savant *Min. 250 pitches in 2024; Min. 1,500 pitches in 2023

I’ll be honest with you: Nobody who tries to gas you up about a young pitcher in 2024 is your friend. They’re only setting you up to be disappointed. Especially when the evidence involves this much splitting out of results from five starts and 26 innings. But Gore is throwing harder, he seems to be hitting his spots, and he’s doing better with runners on base and against righties, both of which had been areas of weakness for him in the past.

I’m not convinced this is the ace the Nationals hoped for when they traded for him two years ago. If and when that happens, I promise we will have a follow-up article about it. But if you’re hoping for something better than just another forgettable, average starter, I think it’s reasonable to dial back the pessimism just a little.