Alex de Minaur will try to stay hot when he goes up against Lorenzo Sonego in round two of the Madrid Masters on Saturday. Denis Shapovalov kicks off his fortnight with veteran Kei Nishikori on the other side of the net.
(6) Alex de Minaur vs. Lorenzo Sonego
De Minaur and Sonego will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers when they clash in the Mutua Madrid Open second round on Saturday. All three of their previous meetings have gone De Minaur’s way—6-3, 7-5 at the 2020 Paris Masters, in a third-set tiebreaker in the 2021 Eastbourne final, and 7-6(3), 6-2 one year later on the same grass courts of Eastbourne.
A move to clay might help Sonego, but it probably won’t be enough to turn the tide. It’s safe to say that De Minaur has found his footing on this surface, which isn’t a surprise given that he trained on it in Spain while growing up. The seventh-ranked Australian is 5-2 on the red stuff this season with a semifinal showing in Monte-Carlo and a quarterfinal performance in Barcelona. Sonego did well to defeat Miomir Kecmanovic 6-4, 7-6(5) on Thursday, but the 43rd-ranked Italian is still just 3-8 in his last 11 matches. This should be mostly one-way traffic for De Minaur.
Pick: De Minaur in 2
Kei Nishikori vs. (29) Denis Shapovalov
Nishikori opened in Madrid with a 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 victory over Aleksandar Vukic on Thursday. That is not a particularly convincing result on clay and Nishikori’s physical state is always a question mark, especially following a tough three-setter—even after having a day off in between matches. It’s worth noting that the 35-year-old exited his previous tournament via retirement (in the Houston second round against Chris Eubanks).
Up next for Nishikori on Saturday is a fourth showdown against Shapovalov, who trails the head-to-head series 2-1 (all on hard courts). They most recently faced each other at the start of this season in Hong Kong, where Nishikori cruised 6-2, 6-3. Shapovalov, though, has played very well since then and heads into Madrid with a 12-8 record in 2025. The 30th-ranked Canadian infamously retired against Diego Dedura-Palomero in Munich, but that was due to illness rather than injury. Shapovalov should be good to go for this Masters 1000 event and will likely have the edge on Saturday.
Pick: Shapovalov in 2
