Top seeds Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev remain on a collision course for the Dubai final, but some dangerous opponents stand in their way. Medvedev meets Ugo Humbert in the semis, while Rublev runs into Alexander Bublik.
(1) Daniil Medvedev vs. (5) Ugo Humbert
Medvedev took a few weeks off after finishing runner-up to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open, but it’s no surprise to see him right back in high gear at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships. The Russian captured the title last year without dropping a single set along the way, beating Novak Djokovic in the semis and Andrey Rublev in the final. So far this week Medvedev has taken out Alexander Shevchenko, Lorenzo Sonego, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Up next for the top seed on semifinal Friday is Humbert, who leads the head-to-head series 2-1. The 18th-ranked Frenchman is playing by far the best tennis of his life dating back to last fall, a stretch that includes a recent title on the indoor hard courts of Marseille. Humbert earned his place in the Dubai semifinals by defeating Gael Monfils, Andy Murray, and Hubert Hurkacz (from three match points down). As their past history suggests, this really isn’t a bad matchup for Humbert–like it is for a lot of Medvedev’s opponents. Humbert has the consistency to hang in long rallies but also the firepower to hit through the world No. 4’s defense in relatively fast conditions. Medvedev is playing well but has not yet faced anyone in the top 20 this week, so it would not be a shock to see his comeback tournament come to an end.
Pick: Humbert in 3
(7) Alexander Bublik vs. (2) Andrey Rublev
Rublev and Bublik are set for a rematch of their memorable Wimbledon fourth-round showdown last summer, won by the Russian 7-5, 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-7(5), 6-4 after he delivered perhaps the shot of the year on the penultimate point of match. The overall head-to-head series stands at 4-1 in Rublev’s favor (4-2 in you include a 2016 Moscow qualifying contest); interestingly, this will be their first-ever meeting on an outdoor hard court.
Conditions in Dubai are favorable for Bublik, who has advanced this week with wins over Tomas Machac, Tallon Griekspoor, and Jiri Lehecka. Unfortunately for the 23rd-ranked Kazakh, this is one of Rublev’s favorite tournaments. The world No. 5 is 17-3 lifetime in Dubai with a title in 2022 and a runner-up performance last February. Rublev has made a return trip to the semis by beating Zhizhen Zhang, Arthur Cazaux, and Sebastian Korda and he has taken six consecutive sets since losing his opener against Zhang. This should be competitive, high-quality affair, but Rublev generally has the upper hand against Bublik and that will likely be the case again on Friday.
Pick: Rublev in 2
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