There is no doubt the Milwaukee Brewers have outperformed expectations in 2024. Although they won the NL Central just last season and made the playoffs in five of the last six years, they were hardly postseason favorites on Opening Day. On the contrary, they were the only 2023 division winners that the majority of our staff did not pick to repeat as division champs; just four of the 25 participants in our preseason predictions exercise picked the Brewers to make the playoffs in any capacity. The only NL Central team with less support was the Pirates.
Meanwhile, our playoff odds were only slightly more optimistic about Milwaukee’s chances. The Brewers had 18.1% odds to win their division and a 30.0% chance to make the postseason on Opening Day. Sixty-seven games have passed between now and then, and over those 67 games, the Brewers have become the indisputable frontrunners in the NL Central. What once seemed like it would be the most closely contested division in the league – all five teams were projected to finish within 2.3 games of one another on April 14 – has become Milwaukee’s to lose. The Pirates, Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds are all smushed within half a game of one another, but the Brewers rest atop with a comfortable 6.5-game lead. Their divisional odds are up to 63.0%; their playoff odds, 78.6%. In the NL, only the three powerhouse clubs, the Phillies, Dodgers, and Braves, are more likely to play in October.
NL Playoff Odds
| Team | Proj. Wins | Win Div. | Make Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 97.5 | 95.7% | 99.7% |
| Phillies | 97.4 | 85.2% | 99.7% |
| Braves | 89.3 | 14.6% | 88.9% |
| Brewers | 87.0 | 63.0% | 78.6% |
While the Brewers are exceeding expectations, it’s not as if they are just getting lucky. They’re 11-10 in one-run games and 3-3 in extra innings. Their actual record matches their BaseRuns expected record, while PythagenPat suggests they deserve an extra win. Finally, and most importantly, it would hardly be fair to say a team as banged up as the Brewers has been the beneficiary of good luck.
